A new World Bank Report finds that Mashreq countries have a unique opportunity to catch up on strengthening the digital economy ecosystem and reposition themselves as strong economic competitors at the regional and interregional levels.

Building the ecosystem of a regional digital economy would greatly benefit from two main comparative advantages these countries enjoy: competitive higher education levels and tech-savvy youth, and a strategic position that allows them to be at the center of advanced service trade and connectivity.

The new report, Mashreq 2.0: Digital Transformation for Inclusive Growth and Jobs, examines the inventory of digital infrastructure in Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon.

The report reviews the legal, regulatory and institutional frameworks governing the sector and pins down the obstacles preventing the full development of digital economies. The report also analyzes cross-sectoral digital applications and platforms, namely in the sectors of energy, financial inclusion, e-government, regional trade and logistics, agriculture and skills development. 

“Digital transformation can address some of the most imminent challenges the Mashreq region faces at this critical period, namely the need to foster inclusive growth and create the much-needed jobs for the region’s vibrant youth,” said Saroj Kumar Jha, World Bank Regional Director for the Mashreq. “Recognizing the importance of digital transformation, the World Bank committed back in October 2018 to the Moonshot approach which calls for doubling broadband access by 2021 and expanding access to digital payments.” 

The transformative impact of the digital economy stems from the growth in the billions of data and online transactions that businesses, individuals and governments perform every day. This transformation can bring about efficiencies, allow faster inclusion of lagging economic and social groups and improve governance and transparency.

Disruptive technologies are also increasingly changing the business model of core sectors of the economy, including agriculture, electricity, oil and gas, and industry production. 

Drawing on the expanded World Bank MENA Strategy which prioritizes leveraging technologies for a new digital economy, the Mashreq region has the opportunity to create an infrastructure for the development of a more sophisticated digital economy and capitalize on its large base of digitally literate youth to position itself as the digital hub of the region. 

“Increased contestability is essential to meet the Moonshot Approach targets,” said Carlo Maria Rossotto, World Bank Lead ICT Policy Specialist and lead author of the report.

“Mashreq countries will need to reduce excessive profits by stimulating competition, strengthen regulatory institutions, create regulatory incentives and ensure universal access in broadband through proactive use of public sector subsidies.” 

Broadband infrastructure enables economic growth as it provides easy access to information and increases efficiencies and productivity in the economy.

In fact, boosting broadband penetration alone by 10% would lead to as high as 1.4% GDP growth and significantly boost economic growth and trade integration in the region. The report finds that overall, there remains a considerable gap in the adoption, speed, usage and affordability of fixed broadband services between the Region and emerging economies such as Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria, countries that compare positively in digital economy development.  

On another hand, the development of physical access networks (“last mile” access) will be the area where most policy attention will need to be paid and the area which could attract the largest amount of investment.

The level of investment needed to bring high speed broadband access to 30% of the population of the Mashreq through fiber access (about 13 million households) will be between 4.0bn and 5.2bn. 

The report also finds that the Mashreq region has an extensive regional and backbone broadband infrastructure in place, that is however sub-optimally used, due to a mix of war and instability, complex political economy, and lack of reform at domestic level. 

The region has a strategic geographical position with respect to the global internet infrastructure. Mashreq countries could capitalize on the strategic access to major sea cable links through further liberalization of international gateways and internet exchange points. 

source: worldbank

The force of digitalization is driving the global economy, creating distinct groups of leaders and laggards. Through institutional reform that leverages the advantages of digitalization, the Mashreq can become a vital hub in international data networks.

Furthermore, digital transformation can assuage pressing challenges. It can deliver higher transparency, accelerate lackluster productivity and increase economic opportunities for all, especially the youth of this region. A new report, Mashreq 2.0, charts the roadmap for the region to capitalize on this rapidly emerging opportunity, and assesses the prospect of a digitally integrated regional market.

Outside the dominant paradigms that portray the region in popular media, the Mashreq is the epicenter of the world’s fastest growing data transit market. Data traffic growth within the region will increase at a precipitous 42% compounded annual growth rate from 2016 to 2021.

Influenced by historically intertwined geographic and cultural ties, MENA-Europe data exchange grows at over 50% per year.

The Mashreq’s potential in the digital economy is also evidenced by the many unicorns that have been incubated in the Arab region. Hallmark cases include Maktoub and Souk.com, born in Jordan’s capital, Amman. These digital platforms indicate an evolution in consumer behavior, embracing digital consumption. Another example is Magnitt, an Iraqi startup now hosted in Dubai, which is a marketplace for investors that links 5,500 startup firms with investors across the region.

These examples signal a bright future for the region, but crucially, broadband internet infrastructure is not yet equipped with the capacity to realize this potential. While mobile phones are ubiquitous in the Mashreq, broadband internet paints a different picture. Mashreq countries have a similarly stark disparity between mobile and broadband penetration: Iraq has 95% mobile penetration but only 28% for broadband; Lebanon is less glaring, with 75% mobile penetration and 71% for broadband. Mobile access is also rather uneven in the region: The gender gap in mobile ownership is 11% in Iraq and 21% in Jordan, but only 2% in Egypt or Turkey. Creating a significant bottleneck, all countries in the Mashreq also have a lower fixed download speed than the global average of 55Mbps: Jordan is at 29 Mbps, Iraq at 13 Mbps, and Lebanon at 7Mbps. Mobile download speed is relatively better off: the global average is 25Mbps, and Lebanon is at 40Mbps, Jordan at 15Mbps and Iraq at 6Mbps. Even so, they fall behind best in class examples such as Romania, that has successfully introduced competition and market contestability to achieve 131Mbps (fixed download speed) and 34Mbps (mobile download speed).

The ability to absorb new communications technology is another source of disparity: 4G connectivity is only available to 25% of Iraq’s population, though present in 95% of the population in Jordan and Lebanon. Internet Exchange Points (IXPs) also present a largely untapped opportunity.

To provide Internet connectivity that can augment the data economy, significant investments in key areas of the infrastructure value chain are necessary.

In Iraq, it is estimated that a total of IQD 660.5 billion (US$558.8 million) will be needed to build a robust fixed network in areas afflicted by conflict.

Investment in the ”last mile” broadband infrastructure is also lagging more generally.

Investments to bring high speed broadband access to 30% of the population of the Mashreq (about 13 million households) through fiber access is estimated to be between US$ 4 billion and US$ 5.2 billion. A large part of the investment needed for this fiber buildup can be provided by the private sector, through competitive entrants, or strategically using Private Private Partnerships (PPPs). A good example is Jordan’s planned PPP on the National Broadband Network (NBN), which may crowd in at least $100 million of additional private investment leveraging an existing government fiber network. Considering the significant potential in the region, unlocking such a high quantum of investment is not beyond possibility. In addition to “last mile” broadband infrastructure, improving IXPs in the region can strengthen regional data exchange networks, and unleash at least US $200 million in investment.

Digital ecosystems can leverage high level of education in the region, including digital literacy, and a strategic geographic position as a central node in advanced service trade. Boosting broadband penetration alone by 10% would have a significant impact on GDP growth, estimated to be as high as 1.4%. This could give a significant boost to economic growth and trade integration in the region. However, this is only one piece of the puzzle.

Where the Mashreq’s regional and backbone broadband infrastructure is extensive, it remains sub-optimally used, due to intricacies in the political economy context, and lack of credible rules and institutions. Institutional reform to increase contestability is essential. Compelling priorities include: a) deepening competition to eliminate rents; b) strengthening regulatory institutions; c) creating regulatory incentives, including a Fiber Regulatory Package (FRP), to facilitate fiber investment; and d) ensuring universal access to broadband through proactive use of the public sector, and fast-track a timetable towards frontier technologies such as 5G.

Implementing these reforms would position the Mashreq to become a digital hub for the region, leveraging the full potential of the new digital economy for MENA, fully embracing innovation and entrepreneurship, creating opportunities for its technology savvy youth.

source: .worldbank