Like its neighbours, Qatar’s economy is feeling the pinch of lower oil prices. Known as the richest country in the world per capita, the small Arab state is set to post its first fiscal deficit in 15 years. But Qatar is much better off to weather the tough times. Its non-oil sector is growing at a rapid pace and so is its high-income population. Qatari nationals as well as the majority of expats living in the country continue to enjoy gigantic spending power, giving the service sector a bigger market to invest in and a much needed demand boost.

Qatar outlook at a glance, 2015-2017

Note: Real GDP in constant 2004 prices.

Source: Qatar Economic Outlook 2015-2017, Ministry of Planning, June, 2015.

The Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics said in its 2015 annual report that “real economic growth, despite lower oil prices, is expected to remain strong on the back of vigour in the non-hydrocarbon economy that is set to carry through to 2016 and 2017.” The ministry also estimated a deficit of 4.9% of GDP and said government spending “continues to move on a lower trajectory than in the recent past”. However, it expects Qatar’s current account to remain in surplus throughout 2017. The good news is that the economy is likely to remain healthy for the short term at least. The International Monetary Fund estimates Qatar’s GDP to grow by 6.4% in 2016, and though this was taken down to around 4% between now and 2019 by Standard & Poor’s (S&P) Rating Services, experts say it should provide plenty of scope for the banking sector to grow

Despite lower hydrocarbon revenues, the government continues to invest heavily in a number of service-oriented industries, and remains committed to providing financial and logistical support to both local and foreign investors.

A variety of institutions heavily involved in Qatar’s diversification drive include Enterprise Qatar, the Qatar Foundation, the Supreme Council of Information and Communication Technology, Qatar Financial Centre and Qatar Development Bank.

Education, healthcare, the insurance and financial sectors as well as hospitality, property and construction are all bringing billions of dollars to the economy, with the World Cup acting as a magnet for investors from all corners of the globe. Switzerland, for example, which recently established a trade and investment promotion agency in Doha, has shown much eagerness to capitalise on an array of business opportunities Qatar has to offer. The Swiss agency known as OSEC, which changed its name to Switzerland Global Enterprise, signed a strategic deal with the Qatari Businessmen’s Association, an entity that enjoys great influence in the country’s business circles.

The Peninsula, a Qatari daily newspaper, reported recently that a free trade agreement to further boost trade and investment is expected in the near future, as the volume of trade between the two countries almost doubled for the period between 2010 and 2014 (from 558 Million SFr to 872 Million SFr).

On top of the government’s agenda for now is to make it this growth sustainable and available for future generations, while optimising the efficiency of its markets and diversifying the economy.

Swiss main exports/imports with Qatar 1985-2014 (Million CHF)

(In order to see the detailed data on exports and imports by commodity please click here)

“Mobilising and using the Qatari resources and abilities together with the Swiss know-how, experience and technology will, without doubt, boost the socio-economic development of the country,” said H.E. Sultan Rashid Al Khater, Under Secretary at the Ministry of Business and Trade. Growing tourist numbers as the wealthy Arab state becomes a much desired travel destination and plans to host the World Cup in 2022 as well as the less known World Athletic Championship in 2019 will require Qatar to provide some 60,000 hotel rooms. Currently, it only has around one fifth of that.

Education

To sustain and continue this growth, Qatar will need to develop a well-educated and highly-skilled workforce and to do that it needs a world class education. According to a recent report, the education sector in the country is set for rapid transformation in the coming years, with between eight to 12 new schools expected to be required every year in the run up to 2022. Demand for schools has increased at a compound growth rate of 6% primarily on the basis of population growth. Government schools comprise 48% of all schools in the country. However, the fastest growing segment is international schools, which as of the academic year 2013 made up 35% of the total number of schools. A persistent school shortage in Doha makes it among the most attractive markets for school developers globally. World renowned education provider, GEMS, which owns and operates over 70 schools in 12 countries, including Switzerland, is set to open a base in a new purpose-built campus in Doha. GEMS is one among many private English curriculum education companies operating in the region.

Finance

Data from Qatar National Bank shows that financial services are making the greatest contribution to the country’s non-hydrocarbon growth, accounting for almost a third of the total of 10.6 percent in 2014. It achieved similar growth in 2015, well ahead of other sectors such as construction, hospitality and manufacturing. From 2010 to 2014, banks in Qatar saw their assets surge by an average annual growth rate of 15.3%, according to Qatar National Bank, the country’s biggest lender. The government, however, will need to continue to invest across the board, from construction and property, to healthcare, education and tourism, to sustain economic growth and encourage foreign investment. Another important avenue for diversifying its income, is investing petrodollars in foreign assets, a strategy that has worked well in the past.

Construction

Qatar’s construction industry is faring much better than its neighbours’ like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, who have suffered from severe project delays, massive job cuts and project cancelations. A recent report found that confidence in the Qatari market among leading construction companies at the end of last year was 19 percentage points higher than the year before. One of its famous construction projects is the $45 billion Lusail City, which has attracted volumes of sizeable investments from all over the world. Once completed in 2017, it is expected to house 200,000 residents as well as scores of hospitality, entertainment and retail developments. Perhaps another reason why construction activities in Qatar maintain healthy growth levels is well-performing property market. In contrast to Dubai, where buying a property would probably cost you half the price of what you’d pay a year ago, prices in Qatar have stayed steady, while demand has held up and in some cases increased.

Meanwhile, developers have been quick to respond to a market hungry for more retail options. A spike in demand has been largely spurred by a fast expanding population, which hit 2.46 million in November last year, and the consistent development of Doha’s residential and transportation infrastructure. The country’s population centre has 13 malls currently in operation and it is looking to more than double that by 2019, according to a recent report by the Oxford business Group. Mall of Qatar, one of the largest retail centres currently under construction, accounts for a $5.4 billion, the size of investment that would be needed to build a small industrial plant. But this is understandable given Qataris’ famous shopaholic inclinations. People’s love for brands have led luxury retailers to give the market a vote of full confidence when it comes to investing in an outlet or setting up local presence. “Qatar is the kind of market that can sustain the high-end segments,” says Sean Kelly, project developer at United Developers, which has a significant portfolio of investments in the country.

Qatar took the world by storm in 2010 as it became the wealthiest nation per capita, while its economy grew by an unprecedented 19.4%. Although its economy remains largely dominated by the public sector, the small Gulf Arab state is embracing more privatisation of state-controlled enterprises. It also provides significant support to more locally owned Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and encourages them to get involved in heavy and light industries, international partnerships and trade.

As one investment expert in the US said, “Qatar is clearly geared more to the institutional investor” or groups that pull their money like retirement or hedge funds. The country has made significant strides in easing its laws on foreign investment and simplifying business ownership in order to incentivise and attract foreign capital. For example, the number of restrictions in non-citizens owning land was taken down significantly with the view to spur real estate investment. Qatar also allows up to 100% of foreign ownership in health and power projects — with approval from the government, as well as agriculture and manufacturing.

Healthcare

Timely diagnosing and treatment of diseases across the MENA region is extremely problematic, with one mind bogging statistics pointing to as much as 40% of people aged between 21 and 79 who suffer from diabetes not being diagnosed on time and in some cases not being diagnosed at all. Many would agree that this is mainly due to a lack of expertise from across the countries, which is increasingly leading governments to seek qualified experts from abroad.

Qatar’s healthcare and insurance sectors would also require significant foreign expertise to keep up with the country’s rapid population growth, which according to the Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics, has more than tripled since 2004. Meanwhile, the rising incidence of lifestyle-related diseases means the state represents the fastest-growing health care market in the GCC. The Oxford Business Group estimates the sector to be worth some $9 billion by 2018, about double the $4.6 billion seen in 2013, with the inpatient market pegged to hit $2.5 billion and the outpatient market expected to reach $6.6 billion. As the government looks to build one of the world’s best healthcare systems, scores of new state of the art hospitals will be required and more robust and efficient healthcare infrastructure will need to be built. In the 2014/15 budget, allocations to the sector increased by 12% year-on-year to 15.7 billion Qatari riyals ($4.3 billion), with the number of health care facilities set to more than double by 2022. Pharmaceutical giants have seen an increased amount of sales off the back of a regional healthcare market that is projected to grow to almost $70 billion in 2018, according to estimates from Alpen Capital. A significant contributor to this health expansion has been the introduction of mandatory health insurance in some of the region’s largest markets. Along with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, Qatar has also made health insurance compulsory for expats, with the rest of the GCC expected to follow suit and thus give rise to a fast expanding insurance market.

Qatar is aspiring to “sustainable economic prosperity” but the truth is it continues to grapple with setbacks ranging from a lack of entrepreneurial spirit among its own people and falling productivity levels across the private and public sectors alike to limitations due to the size of its own economy and damaging external forces like exchange rate appreciation, which makes its exports more costly and less competitive. Qatar’s domestic economy is too small to attract significant foreign investment focused on internal markets, proving futile as a training ground for local companies hoping to expand regionally or globally. In addition, due to its geographic location, Qatar is one of the most isolated states in the GCC which some believe is significantly hampering intra-regional trade and limiting investment.

For now, diversifying its economy and exploring new channels to bring in money to the country remains its most viable option.

Investing in downstream industries such as petrochemicals and metallurgy and developing their subsectors like fertilizers and even chemicals will play a crucial role in decarbonizing Qatar’s economy. On top of that, it would create more jobs for the youth and take advantage of cheap feedstock. But this is easier said than done. In order to fully realise its future ambitions, Qatar will first have to make up for the shortages of local labour. Historically, Western expats have been filling the gap. A more long-term solution would be to better engage its own people and encourage home-grown entrepreneurship. The government is warming up to the idea and as part of Qatar’s National Vision it pledges to provide support and training to the private sector which it sees playing “an essential role in achieving sustainable development”, and raise productivity levels across the entire economy. At the same time, it admits that more needs to be done to improve competitiveness and attract investment in what it calls “a dynamic and increasingly borderless international economy.”

But Qatar is not alone in its push for economic diversification. Many of the Gulf Arab states have the exact same objectives and have for years been pumping huge amounts of money into petrochemicals, air transport, logistics, real estate, knowledge services and finance, among other sectors. If Qatar wants to relive the glory of enviable growth and economic momentum, it needs to address head on the challenges at stake. From low demand for skills amid rising labour surplus and limited capabilities of discovery and innovation, to a weak private sector and low levels of entrepreneurship, the obstacles for growth – at least for now – continue to abound.

By Soukaina Rachidi

According to recent forecasts from the International Monetary Fund, the GDP of the six oil-reliant members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, U.A.E, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia are projected to slow to 2.7% in 2016, down from 3.2% in 2015.  The main cause for this slowed growth is the historically low oil prices, which have weakened the fiscal balances of Gulf’ oil-exporters and resulted in unprecedented budget deficits for the first time in 20 years.

With increased oil yields from Russia, Africa, the Caspian Sea and the re-introduction of Iran into the global oil market, the GCC has had to deal with an increasing number of competitors. However, this increase isn’t the only challenge facing the GCC. The growing interest in renewable energy has also resulted in a steady decline in the demand for oil. However, while oil prices are unlikely to rise anytime soon, The GCC’s substantial sovereign wealth funds and foreign reserves are sure to protect it from any economic shocks in the foreseeable future.

Marie Owens Thomsen, Chief Economist at Indosuez Wealth Management, believes that low oil prices are presenting the GCC with a unique opportunity to introduce structural reforms and fiscal policies that will diversify its economies, increase investment and create more sustainable business opportunities for the region. Here are three new emerging industries that investors should consider in the GCC.

1. Halal Lifestyle Industry

A recent report published by the Economist Intelligence Unit predicted that the Gulf’s Halal food imports are projected to increase to 53.1 billion dollars by 2020 and by the end of the decade, the UAE’s annual Halal food imports alone are expected to reach an estimated 8.4 billion dollars. While the GCC has lagged in developing the Islamic economy in the past, these projections are changing the landscape of the region’s economy. The UAE is currently leading the charge, as it primes Dubai to become the future hub of Islamic banking, Halal food and lifestyle industries.

By leading the world in the standardization of halal accreditation and certification, Dubai hopes to attract new industry-specific manufacturing and services to the region. In addition to that, the UAE is also targeting the halal tourism market, which represents 11.6% of global tourism expenditure and is projected to be worth 238 billion dollars by 2019. With the rapidly growing global Muslim population and an emerging middle class, the GCC has the potential to generate great revenue serving the needs of this growing market segment.

2. Aviation Industry

The lack of other efficient modes of transportation in the GCC has played a big role in fueling the demand for better airlines, airports and aviation services in the region. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the Middle East is anticipated to be one of the fastest growing regions in the world in terms of passenger traffic until at least 2034, with an annual growth rate of 4.6% on average. Over the past couple of years, the GCC has implemented various progressive aviation policies to increase transparency and promote competitiveness in the sector to encourage further growth.

The fact that roughly 80% of the world's population lives within an eight-hour flight of the GCC has also presented a great advantage to the region’s aviation sector. While airlines like Qatar Airways, Etihad and Emirates lead the market in long-haul flights, smaller low-cost carriers like FlyDubai and Air Arabia are filling the gap in the short-haul market. The GCC’s clear geographic advantage, the rise in tourism, growing populations and the ready access to capital, fuel and space make the Gulf’s aviation industry a strong investment opportunity for investors seeking to capitalize on the privatization of airports and existing gaps in the domestic travel market.

3. Entrepreneurship Industry

While political turmoil and lower oil prices have adversely impacted many sectors in the region, the GCC’s start-up ecosystem continues to flourish. In fact, in 2015, the Dubai Department of Economic Development issued an estimated 22,025 trade licenses, which is almost double the number issued in 2009. Despite the additional regulatory challenges that entrepreneurs face in the GCC, such as restrictive visa regulations or the lack of bankruptcy laws, the region still remains an attractive hub for startups founders.  Dubai Department of Economic Development has risen steadily during the past eight years, after a dip in 2009, when the global financial crisis hit the region. Last year, Dubai DED issued 22,025 trade licences, up from 11,743 in 2009.business category.The number of trade licences issued by Dubai Department of Economic Development has risen steadily during the past eight years, after a dip in 2009, when the global financial crisis hit the region. Last year, Dubai DED issued 22,025 trade licences, up from 11,743 in 2009.

According to Dany Farha, the Chief Executive of Dubai-based Beco ­Capital, the GCC’s tech startup sector has grown ten-fold in the past four years. The growth of the regional venture capital ecosystem and the falling demand for office space and the willingness of suppliers to negotiate prices has created the “perfect storm” for small businesses to grow and reduce overhead costs. Furthermore, the privatization of various public services across the GCC, has created a unique opportunity for investors to diversify their portfolios and help entrepreneurs provide more efficient and cost-effective services for GCC governments’ and consumers.  

Par: Sami Ben mansour

Le 23 mars 2016, le prix du baril de pétrole était côté à moins de 40$ à la bourse des matières premières de New York. En l'espace de 18 mois, le cours de l’or noir est passé de 106 à 37$. Un effondrement spectaculaire qui a entraîné très vite par chute dangereuse du marché.

Le reflux de l’économie mondiale dû au ralentissement de la croissance chinoise ne saurait expliquer à lui seul la baisse brutale du baril du pétrole. Derrière cette dégringolade des cours, il y a un enjeu geoploitique. L’Arabie Saoudite : un acteur majeur du marché étant le premier producteur mondial et le détenteur des deuxièmes plus grosses réserves planétaires de brut.

Une baisse provoquée

Le ralentissement de l’économie mondiale engendre déjà une demande moindre en énergie, le pétrole en premier. Pour redresser le cours de ce dernier, il est de coutume que les plus grands producteurs, l’Arabie Saoudite en tête, baissent leur production afin de rééquilibrer le marché. Mais cette fois l’Arabie saoudite maintient ses niveaux de production.

La baisse du prix de pétole a des effets négatifs directs sur l’Iran et la Russie, deux pays riches en pétrole, les alliés du régime d’Al Assad en Syrie. D’autre part, les Etats-Unis, profitant d’un pétrole cher, ont investi massivement dans l’exploitation du gaz de schiste, accroissant leur production et ainsi leur autonomie énergétique. Pour les punir de cette audace qui menace son leadership pétrolier et protéger ses parts de marché, l’Arabie Saoudite contrôle le marché à la baisse entraînant la faillite de beaucoup de producteurs américains de gaz de schiste.

Des conséquences économiques et sociales visibles

La baisse de prix de petrole a entrainé une baisse de production du gaz de schiste aux Etats-Unis, tandis que les alliés d’Al Assad souffrent économiquement. Mais les conséquences commencent sérieusement à se faire ressentir au niveau du royaume.

L’Arabie saoudite, dépendante à 90% des exportations de brut, n’est certes pas ruinée, forte de ses 667 milliards d’euros de réservers en devises accumulées durant les années des vaches grasses. Mais son train de vie va changer de manière drastique.

Conséquences immédiates : le prix du pétrole à la pompe a doublé dans le royaume entrainant un vent de panique parmi les saoudiens et des files d’attentes devant les stations d’essence. Du jamais vu dans le royaume. Mais le train de mesures spectaculaires ne s’arrête pas là car l’Etat ne prendra plus en charge comme à l’accoutumée le logement qui sera beaucoup moins subventionné qu’avant. Et l’eau et l’électricité augmenteront de 70%… Enfin, le saoudien découvre la TVA, notion totalement inexistante jusque-là dans le royaume.

Sur le plan macroéconomique, le déficit budgétaire saoudien s’est creusé de manière abyssale à plus de 89 milliards d’euros. Mais le danger guette, car le Fond monétaire international a averti le royaume qu’il risque d’épuiser ses réserves en devises en cinq ans s’il ne réduit pas ses dépenses et ne diversifie pas son économie.

Réformes budgétaires et diversification économique

(1) McKinsey Global Institute, «Saudi Arabia beyond Oil : the Investment and productivity transformation», Décembre 2015.

Les opinions exprimées dans cet exposé sont celles de l'auteur et ne reflètent pas nécessairement celles de la direction de la plateforme

الكاتب: سامي بن منصور

في 23 مارس 2016، كان سعر برميل النفط أقل من 40 $ في بورصة المواد الخام بنيويورك. ففي غضون 18 شهرا انحدر سعر الذهب الأسود من 106 الى 37 $. و سرعان ما تحول هذا الانخفاض الكبير إلى سقوط خطير.

ارتداد الاقتصاد العالمي بسبب التباطؤ في النمو الصيني لا يمكن أن يفسر وحده هذا الانخفاض الحاد في سعر برميل النفط. وراء هذا الانهيار للأسعار نجد عوامل جيوسياسية نتيجة الصراعات في المنطقة.

  انخفاض مفتعل

تباطؤ الاقتصاد العالمي يولد بالفعل انخفاض الطلب على الطاقة، و أولها النّفط. لتصويب مسار الأسعار، من المعتاد أن أكبر المنتجين و أولهم المملكة العربية السعودية يضغطون في اتجاه تخفيض الإنتاج من أجل إعادة التوازن إلى السوق. لكن في هذه المرة سارت الامور على غير المعتاد و حافظت المملكة العربية السعودية على مستويات إنتاجها.

دعونا نقوم بتحليل في الاقتصاد الجيوسياسي. ان انخفاض اسعار النفط يشكل ضربة لإيران وروسيا وهما من حلفاء نظام الأسد في سوريا، حيث انهما من البلدان الغنية بالنفط. من ناحية أخرى، فإن الولايات المتحدة الامريكية استفادت كثيرا من ارتفاع أسعار النفط لدرجة انها استثمرت بكثافة في استغلال الغاز الصخري لزيادة إنتاجها من النفط، و تحقيق استقلالها  في قطاع الطاقة. هذه الجرأة الامريكية تهديد صارخ للريادة السعودية في السوق النفطية مما دفع المملكة للسيطرة على السوق في اتجاه الهبوط للحفاظ على حصتها التجارية و هو مما تسبب في إفلاس العديد من المنتجين الأمريكيين للغاز الصخري.

عواقب اجتماعية و اقتصادية حقيقية للهبوط الحاد في اسعار النفط

ان الانخفاض الحاد الذي شهدته اسعار النفط ادى الى نتائج مباشرة على الولايات المتحدة التي خفضت إنتاجها، كما ان كل من ايران و روسيا عرفتا صعوبات مالية ضخمة جراء هبوط السوق. ومما لا شك فيه بان عواقب انخفاض اسعار النفط هذه بدت جليا في الحياة اليومية في المملكة.

المملكة العربية السعودية التي تعتمد بنسبة 90٪ على صادرات النفط الخام هي بالتأكيد ليست في حالة دمار اقتصادي بعد انزلاق أسعار النفط، نظرا لوجود احتياطي للصرف بالعملة الصعبة يقدر بـ 667 مليار يورو  تراكمت خلال سنوات الرخاء الاقتصادي. ولكن أسلوب حياة المملكة سيتغير بشكل جذري.

فقد كانت لهبوط السوق النفطية نتائج فورية. فسعر النفط في محطات البنزين قد تضاعف في المملكة مما تسبب في حالة من الذعر لدى السعوديين و تشكيل طوابير ضخمة امام محطات البنزين و هو شيء لم يسبق له مثيل في المملكة. ولكن لن تتوقف التبعات عند هذا الحد في المملكة، اذ ان الدولة لن تتحمل مصاريف دعم الإسكان كالمعتاد و قررت ايضا أن تقلل بكثير من مدى الدعم لامدادات الماء والكهرباء، مما ادى لزيادة التكلفة للمستهلك بنسبة 70٪.  و اخيرا  يكتشف السعوديون ضريبة القيمة المضافة التي لم يكن لها وجود البتة في المملكة.

على الصعيد الاقتصادي العام، اتسع العجز في الميزانية السعودية الى حد مروع و قدر بأكثر من 89 مليار يورو. ولكن الخطر الأكبر، حسب تحذيرات صندوق النقد الدولي هو استنفاد احتياطيات العملة الصعبة في غضون الخمس سنوات القادمة ان لم تخفض المملكة من وتيرة الإنفاق العام و تتخذ قرارات في اتجاه تنويع اقتصادها.

إصلاحات مالية و تنويع الاقتصاد

(1) معهد ماكينزي العالمي، "المملكة العربية السعودية بعد النفط: التحول في الاستثمار والإنتاجية"، ديسمبر 2015.

الاراء الواردة في هذا المقال تعبر عن راي الكاتب ولا تعبر بالضرورة عن راي ادارة الموقع