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Direct investments in Abu Dhabi’s Kizad hit $19bln
Khalifa Industrial Zone has attracted more than 200 national and foreign investors
The volume of direct investments in Khalifa Industrial Zone (Kizad) has reached Dh70 billion ($19 billion), Captain Mohamed Juma Al Shamisi, CEO of Abu Dhabi Ports was quoted as saying in a media report.
It has attracted more than 200 national and foreign investors, and contributed to building a diversified, sustainable and knowledge-based economy, reported state news agency Wam.
In a press statement on the sidelines of groundbreaking ceremony of the Chinese Roadbot Tyre Project Kizad (Roadbot) - which is the first tyre manufacturing plant in the UAE, Al Shamisi said that there are 45 companies and factories operating in the industrial zone.
He affirmed that Abu Dhabi Ports maintained steady growth, with its contribution in 2017 to Dh19.6 billion or 3.6 per cent of non-oil GDP in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi. He pointed out that the company aims to achieve balanced growth in the coming years to contribute 15 per cent of Abu Dhabi's non-oil GDP by 2030.
Abu Dhabi Ports CEO said that Roadbot has become the first Chinese firm to set up there since JOCIC and Abu Dhabi Ports signed a 50-year agreement in 2017.
He pointed out that the factory will meet the global tyre industry's highest standards of design and construction, and, when completed, be an intelligent, fully automated, and eco-friendly plant.
Al Shamisi went on to say, that the factory is at the centre of the Belt and Road initiative, and is the result of excellent partnership between the UAE and China. It also reflects the deep relations between the two countries. He added that the products manufactured in the plant will be sold in the Middle East, Africa, the United States, and Europe.
Source:zaway
Qatar fast tracking policies to tap more fdis
Qatar has begun fast-tracking the implementation of “progressive policies” to further attract foreign direct investments (FDIs), HE the Minister of Commerce and Industry Ali bin Ahmed al-Kuwari has said.
FDIs increased by 4% ($7.8bn) to $186bn at the end of the first quarter of 2018 from $178bn in end-2017, al-Kuwari said at a session at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
This increase is driven by Qatar’s “revised legislations and regulations” to provide further incentives to foreign investors and allow up to 100% ownership in all sectors, which benefit from income tax exemptions as well as exemptions from customs duties on the import of goods for production.
Qatar is also allocating lands by way of rent for up to 50 years to foreign investors to establish their projects while allowing foreign companies to transfer their investment returns to their home countries in any convertible currency and investors to transfer the ownership of their companies to a Qatari or foreign investor in accordance with applicable laws.
Qatar now allows investors up to 100% ownership in free zones and offers tax exemptions for up to 20 years without restrictions on the repatriation of capital, the minister said.
Investors in these areas can export to local markets, tap investment funds and enter into joint ventures with local state-backed companies.
Al-Kuwari said Qatar was also in the process of drafting a public and private partnership law to pave the way for the launch of major new projects as the government bolstered spending on state-of-the-art infrastructure and logistics conforming to the highest international standards.
atar’s 2018 annual budget allocated $25.5bn for spending on major projects, the minister said, noting that these include projects related to the 2022 FIFA World Cup as well as sustainable development projects implemented within the framework of the Qatar National Vision 2030.
These projects will further promote Qatar’s tourism sector and realise plans to attract 5.6mn visitors annually by 2023 - double the number the country welcomed in 2016.
Al-Kuwari noted Qatar’s GDP increased to $222bn in 2017 compared to $218bn in 2016, growing at an annual rate of 1.6%, and expanding by over 5% in the first six months of 2018 compared to the same period in the previous year.
Quoting the World Bank, the minister said growth was estimated at 2.3% in 2018 and expected to increase to 2.7% in 2019 and 3% in 2020, mainly driven by Qatar’s “attractive” business-friendly environment.
This is evident in the ranking of Qatar on the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Report 2018, he said.
Globally, Qatar ranks first in terms of low inflation rates, sixth in terms of the effect of taxes on competition, eighth in terms of venture capital availability, ninth in terms of financing small and medium enterprises (SMEs), and tenth for growth of innovative companies while regionally the country ranks first on the Global Entrepreneurship Index, al-Kuwari added.
Source: gulf times
Buy Dubai house, get free trade licence
You can now buy a home in Dubai and get a trade licence free with it.Emaar in partnership with the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre has launched 184 units in an under-construction building in Dubai Hills Estate. Those who pay 20 per cent of the apartment price at Executive Residences will receive a free three-year renewable business licence (estimated to be worth Dh130,000), a free three-year renewable family residency visa and 100 per cent business ownership. The owner can also apply for an employee visa with every trade licence.
This is a product targeted at entrepreneurs and SMEs and is touted to be a game-changer in the UAE real estate industry. Entrepreneurs can now do away with the need to rent office premises.
"It will give buyers the freedom to work flexible hours and perhaps set up a business they can run from home. The offer is exceedingly attractive to families with young children as it will give parents the option to spend more time at home and be flexible with child care," said Lewis Allsopp, CEO of Allsopp & Allsopp.
A one-bedroom apartment is priced below Dh1 million while two-beds range from Dh1.3 million to Dh1.6 million. The building is slated to be ready by 2021.
"It helps you to achieve cost savings. The product is targeted at SMEs, who contribute 80 per cent of the economy," said Kunal Puri, founder and managing director of La Capitale Real Estate.
Earlier, business owners had to show their office tenancy contract as proof to get a trade licence. In this project, they can do so with their house Ejari certificate.
"People are already waiting in queue to buy with credit card authorisation. This kind of freedom has never existed in the market before. It is a master stroke by the developer," added Puri.
With the Executive Residences, entrepreneurs and startup owners have a chance to run a home-based business legally.
Source:khaleej times
How Ad Tech Entrepreneurs Can Combat Google and Facebook's Dominance
The best way to secure a share of the growing market? Avoid head-to-head competition with the duopoly and instead seek out new opportunities -- like these.
Although few consumers have heard of them, ad tech firms have been operating behind the scenes for the past decade or more, creating innovative processes such as programmatic advertising (automated ad buying) and header bidding. Once fueled by the huge growth in online ad spend and an abundance of cheap venture capital, the rise of ad tech startups is now waning thanks to the duopoly held by Facebook and Google.
2017 saw global digital ad spend reach new heights -- $88 billion, according to the Interactive Advertising Bureau. Of course, of the 21 percent market growth over the previous year, 90 percent went to Google and Facebook. Meanwhile, The New York Times reports that the number of independent ad tech firms has shrunk by 21 percent since 2013. In fact, the only thing that’s shrinking faster is the investment in it. Stats collected by Crunchbase analyzing almost 2,000 venture capital deals in ad tech reveal that, by the first half of 2017, investment had dropped close to 80 percent from the peak in the first half of 2013.
Google is notorious for identifying up-and-coming competitors early and pursuing aggressive acquisition strategies. At the same time, Facebook’s 2.27 billion monthly active users mean that the social network is sitting on a goldmine of market research. It’s counterintuitive, but in a space dominated by two hungry giants, ad tech entrepreneurs need to think small to stay around.
Dodging the duopoly
The best way for ad tech entrepreneurs to secure a share of the growing market is by seeking out new opportunities instead and avoiding head-to-head competition with Facebook and Google. For example, linking data from offline purchases at brick-and-mortar retailers with online consumer data can create cross-platform identifiers that deliver tremendous value.
Streaming video is also quickly emerging as a space where startups can find potential in new revenue channels. As Amazon enters the ad business, devices such as the Echo and FireTV can enable startups to deliver ads right into customers' homes.
While there’s no guaranteed way to regain investor confidence, ad tech startups and independent firms should keep in mind that market dominance doesn’t necessarily equate to either quality or preference. In light of the slew of scandals that have rocked Facebook, concerns of consumers and regulators are rising. By focusing on transparency and vetted data alone, it might be possible for ad tech companies to win over new customers.
To further differentiate themselves from the duopoly, ad tech firms should take the following three steps:
1. Consolidate with the competition.
Viable companies in the ad tech space are beating Google and Facebook to the punch and consolidating with one another before they get swallowed up by the duopoly. Not surprisingly, the prevalence of this practice is contributing to a stark decline in the number of independent ad tech firms.
Based on research by LUMA Partners, The New York Times reports that just 185 firms remain as of the second quarter of 2018. Terry Kawaja, who led the research group, explains that “While all industries go through a maturation curve, this one faces a particular need for consolidation. So many of these companies were not profitable.”
2. Target audiences outside the duopoly.
A recently formed ad tech consortium including AppNexus, MediaMath and LiveRamp is attempting to target audiences interacting outside of Google and Facebook through the use of cross-platform identifiers. The two tech giants command tremendous value because their logged-in user bases have historically been easier to target, but the new consortium should make media investment outside the control of Facebook and Google more efficient.
To increase investor confidence, the consortium has adopted a self-imposed code of ethics covering critical issues such as privacy and security. These topics are a growing concern among those using the dominant platforms, adding another differentiator for the consortium’s consumers.
3. Identify niche markets.
To win precious ad tech dollars, entrepreneurs must do something that’s difficult for massive companies to pull off -- focus on niche markets that are high-value and low-volume. For example, Israel-based navigation app Waze targets users who want to optimize their travel and avoid speed traps. Because users rely heavily on location services to get value from the app, Waze can target them with highly customized, location-specific ads.
Google Maps couldn’t compete with the unique and high-value feature offered by Waze, so the tech giant bought the ambitious young upstart for a figure reported by TechCrunch to be $1.1 billion back in 2013.
Advertising is a lucrative market. As ad tech spending continues to rise, Europe’s implementation of the GDPR brings hope to startups and smaller companies that regulations might slow the pace of acquisition established by Facebook and Google. The window could be brief as the giants adjust to the learning curve, but if there was ever a time for disruption in the ad tech space, it’s now.
Source: entrepreneur
4 Ecommerce Trends to Watch Carefully for in 2019
As the online retail space grows ever more competitive, entrepreneurs will need to adapt.
Ecommerce enjoyed a record-breaking year in 2018, with global sales revenues estimated to have reached $2.8 trillion, according to Statista. This year, this figure is expected to rise to $3.5 trillion. To put this in perspective, if the ecommerce industry were a country, it would slot into the fifth spot, ahead of the United Kingdom, whose GDP as of April 2018 was $2.61 trillion.
With such eye-opening figures, it’s little wonder there’s so much excitement surrounding the future of online retail. Amid all the hype about ecommerce, it’s easy to forget that this segment accounts for just 11.9 percent of the total retail sales around the world. Therefore, the market holds an extraordinary capacity for growth over the next decade.
Below, I identify the four trends that ecommerce entrepreneurs should pay the closest attention to:
1. Smaller businesses using big data
Yes, we’ve heard quite a lot about big data over the past two years, but it’s not going away. As more people come to grips with this new resource, this effort will increasingly separate the successful from the less successful ecommerce businesses. And this division will not be limited to behemoth ecommerce businesses either, because mid-range competitors too are now using their data reserves to mine unique insights.
Big data, in fact, helps entrepreneurs analyze shopping behavior, trends and what products it is that are selling. It's been proven to help ecommerce businesses make improvements in customer service, security and mobile commerce. It also powers the AI which is revolutionizing the industry (more on this below).
In short, big data is likely to power future developments in your ecommerce business. If you are planning on staying in the industry long term, you would be wise to study the latest developments.
2. Excellent customer service
Shoppers are growing used to the convenience of ecommerce, and entrepreneurs need to ensure that the customer experience meets those people's growing expectations. The purchasing journey needs to be smooth, reassuring and secure. Stores also need to be quick to respond to queries and resolve issues.
One American Express study has found that more than half of Americans surveyed had canceled a purchase due to bad service. But take heart; you needn't be the entrepreneur on the other end of that type of transaction. Instead, there are a number of ways you can deliver outstanding customer service:
Ensure a smooth checkout: Too many ecommerce stores still have unnecessarily drawn-out checkouts. Consider whether you need any more than two stages, i.e., you can fill in the details on one page; then confirm those details and items on the next.
Be responsive: Whether it’s on social media or your website or via email or phone, your business should respond to any queries in a timely and professional manner. An increasing number of stores offer live chat on their sites, and the response of customers has been overwhelmingly positive.
Deliver a personalized experience: Use your customer’s browsing and purchase history to deliver a personalized shopping experience. This is something Amazon has turned into an art form in recent years, directing its customers to the products that are most relevant to them and that they are more likely to buy.
Listen to your customers: Be proactive in looking for feedback and asking your customers about their experience. By asking for feedback, you’ll shape a more holistic view of your business and how it is perceived. Don’t be afraid to address criticism, either, even if it’s in public. In this way, you'll identify your weaknesses and prove to customers that you take complaints seriously.
Above all, understand that providing excellent customer service is no longer a bonus for an ecommerce business. It’s now the norm.
3. Enhanced AI
Without good, well-ordered data, you will not be able to embrace the latest technologies that can drive revenue to your ecommerce store. AI is already evident in many ecommerce stores. Those automated live chatbots, advanced data analytics and inventory management tools? They are all powered by AI.
However, there are examples of stores taking it to the next level to deliver a highly personalized experience. Outdoor wear brand, The North Face, has recently unveiled a digitalized personal shopper which can guide customers to products. There are also voice search and mobile shopping, which enable people to shop on the move.
4. Improved personalization
One of the factors behind Amazon’s success is its advanced product recommendations algorithm, which drives up to 35 percent of the company’s total sales. Using the buyer’s shopping habits, interests and even browsing history, the ecommerce giant is able to promote the products the buyer is most likely to purchase.
Looking beyond Amazon, product recommendation engines have proven effective at delivering a personalized shopping experience and driving up revenue for stores. The key is to place those recommendations at optimum points in the purchasing process.
First, ensure you have recommended products visible to your shoppers on the home page or after the point that they sign in. Then, once they have added items to their basket, ensure you have suggested complementary items. You can also suggest items at checkout.
Final thoughts
Entrepreneurs who take the proactive approach, embrace the latest advances in tech and make use of data will reap the rewards in ecommerce. As AI becomes more mainstream, it is essential that ecommerce business owners take personalization to the next level. Simply having a product recommendation plugin is no longer enough; you need to be proactive and utilize tools in the right way, with well-curated data, to maximize their potential.
Source: entrepreneur
بين التيسير والتشديد الكمي إلى أين تتجه رؤوس الأموال 3؟
يلعب الاحتياطي الفيدرالي الأمريكي دوراً كبيراً في تحديد اتجاهات الاقتصاد الأمريكي، لكن القليل من المستثمرين يفكرون بالتأثيرات غير المباشر لسياسات الاحتياطي الفيدرالي خارج الولايات المتحدة. في المقالين السابقين عالجنا موضوع التيسير الكمي وآلية تأثيره في حركة رؤوس الأموال عالمياً، في الجزء الثالث والأخير من هذه السلسلة سوف نستعرض مفهوم سياسة التشديد الكمي وكيف يمكن لهذه السياسة ان تؤثر في اتجاهات رؤوس الأموال.
تشديد كمي
في 14 حزيران/يونيو 2017 أعلن الاحتياطي الفيدرالي الأمريكي عن توقف عمليات السوق المفتوحة، أي عمليا اعلان توقف سياسة التيسير الكمي، لكن مع الإبقاء على حجم الميزانية العمومية ثابتاً أي إعادة الاستثمار في المشتريات دون شراء المزيد منها، وفي العام نفسه تم الإعلان عن رفع سعر الفائدة بواقع 0.25% واعيد رفع سعر الفائدة تسع مرات حتى وصل لحوالي 2.5% في نهاية 2018، وهو اعلى سعر فائدة منذ عشر سنوات. وبحسب الفيدرالي من المتوقع رفع سعر الفائدة مرتين في العام الحالي، كما اعلن التوقف عن عملية إعادة الاستثمار في سندات الخزينة وسندات الرهون العقارية وذلك بمقدار 50 مليار دولار شهرياً ترافق ذلك مع توضيحات من مجلس الاحتياطي الفيدرالي الأمريكي عن نيته تطبيع ميزانيته، أي جعل حجمها طبيعيا، وهو الاسم الرسمي لسياسة التشديد الكمي حيث سيعمل الاحتياطي الفيدرالي الأمريكي على سحب السيولة التي يراها فائضة من الأسواق الى حين تنخفض حجم ميزانيته الى الحجم الذي يراه طبيعياً دون وضع سقف لذلك.
لماذا التشديد الكمي الان؟
إذا كان لسياسة التيسير الكمي كل تلك الفوائد التي رأينها في المقالين السابقين فإن السؤال الأكثر إلحاحاً هو لماذا التشديد الكمي الآن؟ الجواب في كلمة التضخم، تبرز مشكلة الانجراف الى التضخم بشكل جدي بعد ان ضخت البنوك المركزية الكبرى المليارات في شراء أصول الشركات المالية والمصارف الخاصة بهدف تحسين وضعها المالي، وهو ما أدى بدوره الى ارتفاع أسعار تلك الاصول وتحسن مؤشرات الأسواق المالية، و ما يؤكد ذلك التحسن المؤشرات الإيجابية التي يظهرها الاقتصاد الأمريكي حيث انخفضت معدلات البطالة الى اقل مستوى لها منذ عام 1969 (3.7 %) كما ان معدل التضخم الذي يستهدفه الاحتياطي الفيدرالي قد وصل إليه بالفعل وهو بحدود ال 2 % وتبقى مهمة الاحتياطي الفيدرالي الان في الحفاظ على هذا المستوى من التحسن وعدم الدخول بموجة تضخم مفاجئة، لذلك ارتأى الاحتياطي الفيدرالي الأمريكي بأن الوقت قد حان لإعادة تطبيع الميزانية العمومية.
ان الحفاظ على هذا المستوى من التشغيل يحتاج الى ضخ الكثير من الاستثمارات أي جذب رؤوس الأموال الى الولايات المتحدة الامريكية، وذلك بعد الخروج الكبير لرؤوس الاموال باتجاه الأسواق الناشئة خلال فترة التيسير الكمي، وتترافق تلك السياسة مع الحرب التجارية التي اعلنها ترامب على العديد من الدول رغبةً منه بإعادة توطين تلك الاستثمارات داخل الولايات المتحدة، وتثبيت التحسن الاقتصادي الذي شهدته البلاد منذ توليه لمنصب الرئاسة، ومثلما كان التيسير الكمي غير مختبر في السابق فإن التشديد الكمي أيضا لم يسبق ان تم اختبار نتائجه الامر الذي يثير مخاوف الكثير من المستثمرين في الأسواق الناشئة من تداعيات تلك السياسية النقدية الجديدة.
نظرة عامة
يعتمد تقويم اثار سياسة التشديد الكمي على طبيعة النشاط الاقتصادي في الأسواق الناشئة. ففي حين تعتمد الصين على سياسة التصدير-في الصناعات التحويلية بشكل خاص- فإن انخفاض قيمة عملتها مقابل دولار يعتبر محفزا لزيادة صادراتها بينما تتأثر الأسواق الناشئة الأخرى التي تعتمد على الاستثمارات الأجنبية في نموها الاقتصادي، فاذا كان نجاح الأسواق الناشئة في استقطاب المستثمرين خلال فترة التيسير الكمي يعود الى العوائد المرتفعة على الأسهم والسندات والقدرة على تمويل عجز الموازنة وتمويل الاستثمارات الحكومية والخاصة عبر الاقتراض الرخيص، بسبب ارتفاع سعر صرف عملاتها مقابل الدولار الامريكي، الذي كان متوفرا بسبب السيولة الضخمة التي عرضت في تلك الأسواق، فإنه يمكن لأسعار الفائدة المرتفعة أن تجذب المزيد من المستثمرين إلى الولايات المتحدة وتؤدي إلى خروج رؤوس الاموال من الأسواق الناشئة. يمكن لهذا الاستثمار الأجنبي المنخفض أن يضع الفرامل على النمو الاقتصادي في العديد من الاقتصادات التي تعتمد على مثل هذه الاستثمارات.
ارتفاع عبء الدين
استفادت العديد من حكومات الأسواق الناشئة من أسعار الفائدة المنخفضة في الولايات المتحدة للاقتراض بالدولار الأمريكي. على سبيل المثال، اقترضت جنوب إفريقيا بشدة عندما كان الدولار منخفضًا واستخدمت العائدات للمساعدة في تمويل نموها واحتياجاتها من الميزانية. ساعدت هذه الديناميات العديد من الأسواق الناشئة على التفوق في الأداء على مدى السنوات العديدة الماضية، ولكن هذه الاستراتيجية يمكن أن تعود عليها بنتائج عكسية عندما يرتفع الدولار من حيث القيمة وتصبح هذه الديون أكثر تكلفة.
الأخبار السيئة هي ان عملات الأسواق الناشئة قد بدأت بالفعل في الانخفاض، خسر البيزو الارجنتيني 50% من قيمته، ووصلت خسائر الليرة التركية الى حوالي 43% فيما خسرت الراند (جنوب افريقيا) 16% وسط توقعات بأن مجلس الاحتياطي الفيدرالي سيزيد أسعار الفائدة في العام الحالي. الامر الذي يزيد من صعوبة تسديد الديون المقومة بالدولار الامريكية ليس فقط بالنسبة لحكومات هذه الدول بل أيضا بالنسبة للشركات الخاصة.
ان ارتفاع قيمة الدين الخارجي، يعني ان الاحتياطيات من العملات اقل من المبالغ المطلوب تسديدها لخدمة الدين الخارجي ودفع قيمة الواردات، الامر الذي يمكن أن تؤدي إلى انخفاض التصنيف الائتماني وارتفاع تكلفة الاقتراض إذا ارتفع الدولار الأمريكي من حيث القيمة، وما يعنيه ذلك من صعوبة الحصول على التمويل اللازم للاستثمار في النمو.
انخفاض قيم الصادرات
تعتمد العديد من اقتصادات الأسواق الناشئة على الصادرات السلعية-المواد الأولية بشكل خاص المرتبطة تاريخياً بالدولار الامريكي- لدفع نموها الاقتصادي. على سبيل المثال، تعتمد البرازيل وروسيا بشدة على أسعار النفط الخام والغاز الطبيعي، في حين تعتمد تشيلي والبيرو على نطاق واسع على النحاس والسلع الصلبة الأخرى. ان ارتفاع أسعار تلك السلع على مدى السنوات العديدة الماضية، حيث يتم تسعيرها بالدولار الأمريكي، كانت تعني الحاجة لدفع المزيد من الدولارات لشراء "قيمة" السلع نفسها، الامر الذي أدى الى ارتفاع قيمتها امام الدولار.
إذا ارتفع الدولار من حيث القيمة، سوف ينعكس على أسعار السلع التي تشهد مزيدًا من الضغط نحو الهبوط، شهدت أسعار خام الحديد في الأيام القليلة الماضية انخفاضاً هو الأكبر منذ عشرة سنوات, كون معظم سلع الأسواق الناشئة تباع بالدولار الأمريكي فإن هذا يعني أنها ستدر عائدات أقل بالقيمة الحقيقية. يمكن أن يترجم انخفاض الإيرادات إلى تباطؤ النمو وانخفاض التقييمات للشركات التي تركز على السلع التي تعمل في الاقتصاديات الناشئة.
قد يجادل البعض بان انخفاض قيمة عملات الأسواق الناشئة سوف يساهم في تعزيز الصادرات لكن هنا نتحدث عن انخفاض وليس تخفيض أي ان الامر لم يتم عبر قرار إداري صادر بشكل مدروس عن البنوك المركزية لتلك الدول، بل هو انخفاض يعود الى محددات العرض والطلب على تلك العملات، كما يعتمد على مرونة الطلب لهذه السلع, وعلى مدخلات عوامل الإنتاج والتي سوف ترتفع قيمة استيرادها بانخفاض قيمة العملة وهذا سوف يؤدي بأفضل الأحوال الى نتيجة صفرية. ويجب عدم اهمال الانعكاس السلبي لانخفاض قيمة العملة على الاستثمار الأجنبي في تلك الدول.
تقلب في اسعار الأصول
ومن بين الصدمات الأقل مباشرة، وربما الأكثر جوهرية، تقلب أسعار الأصول نتيجة لهروب رؤوس الاموال. وبالنظر إلى أن الرافعة المالية تزداد بشكل ملحوظ عندما يقوم الاحتياطي الفيدرالي بتخفيض أسعار الفائدة وتقلص التكلفة العالمية للتمويل، فإن الزيادة المفاجئة في التكلفة التمويل ونقص رأس المال المحلي قد يؤدي إلى انخفاض أرباح الشركات وأسعار الأصول بشكل كبير. ولن تؤدي أسعار الأصول المتعثرة هذه إلى ارتفاع مستوى المديونية بسرعة فحسب، مما يزيد من عبء الديون في بلد ما، بل إنه يضعف أيضا جودة الأصول في المؤسسات المالية للبلد، التي عادة ما تتعرض لمخاطر تقلبات كبيرة.
من المرجح أن تقدم أسعار الفائدة الأمريكية المرتفعة تحديات جدية للأسواق الناشئة، خاصة تلك التي تعاني من ضعف في التمويل الخارجي مثل البرازيل وتركيا وجنوب إفريقيا أو الحكومات والشركات والبنوك التي لديها مبالغ كبيرة من الديون المقومة بالدولار والتي أصبحت خدمة دينها أكثر تكلفة.
العالم العربي
يبقى العالم العربي الأقل تأثرا في سياسة التشديد الكمي, وذلك يعود لجملة من الأسباب أهمها توفر الفوائض المالية المتحققة من تصدير النفط والاحتياطيات الضخمة من العملات الاجنبة وهو الامر الذي يكاد ينحصر بدول مجلس التعاون الخليجي ويضاف الى ذلك الإصلاحات الهيكلية التي تقدم عليها دول المجلس عبر تقليل اعتمادها على صادرات الطاقة في تحقيق النمو وتخفيض الدعم الحكومي وتقديم التسهيلات للعمليات الاستثمارية المنتجة, في حين يتوقع ان تحقق الدول العربية الخارجة من الحروب معدلات نمو هي الأعلى في العالم للسنوات القليلة المقبلة (حسب تقديرات البنك الدولي) و مرد ذلك ان تلك الدول سوف تدخل في مرحلة إعادة الاعمار في سنوات المقبلة مما يفسح المجال لتحقيق نمو مرتفع (يضع البنك الدولي اليمن في المرتبة الأولى من حيث نمو بمعدل 14 % في عام 2019 وهو اعلى معدل نمو عالمياً في حين تحل ليبيا في المرتبة الثانية بحوالي 7 %) فيما تبقى كل من لبنان والأردن ومصر من الدول العربية الأكثر عرضةً للتأثر بسياسة التشديد الكمي بسبب معدلات الدين العام المرتفعة والتي تصل الى اكثر من 160 % من اجمالي الناتج المحلي في لبنان.
الخاتمة
في الختام لا يمكن القول بشكل مطلق وعام بأن رؤوس الأموال سوف تهرب من الدول الناشئة وكأنه قدر محتوم، فالأمر بالنهاية يعتمد على مدى حكمة متخذي القرارات الاقتصادية في تلك الدول. يتعين على الاقتصادات الناشئة أن تتخلى عن نموذج النمو "الفقاعي" قصير الأجل الذي تغذيه الديون وتقلبات حركة رؤوس الأموال، وأن تجد طرقها الخاصة لزيادة وتيرة التنمية الاقتصادية. وعندما يحدث ذلك فقط، ستتمكن من تجاوز اعتمادها على الدورة الاقتصادية العالمية، والتعرض الحساس لسياسات النقدية من جانب الاحتياطي الفيدرالي الأمريكي، فمهما كانت التداعيات التي تفرزها السياسة النقدية أو غير النقدية الصادرة عن الدول المتقدمة فإن الديناميات الذاتية في الأسواق الناشئة تبقى المحدد الرئيس لمدى حسن سير النمو الاقتصادي.
GDP growth in the region is projected to strengthen to 3.0 percent in 2018, and rise slightly.
higher in 2019-2020, with oil exporters continuing their recovery from the collapse of oil prices, and oil importers experiencing a smaller acceleration.
The outlook assumes continued policy reforms and oil prices remaining above their 2017 average. In 2018, growth in oil exporters is expected to rise substantially to 2.7 percent due to additional government spending, enabled by increased domestic revenues and firm oil prices.
In the GCC, 2018 growth will be further supported by higher fixed investment, bolstered by public investment programs and improved demand. Growth will remain stable during 2019-20, propelled by steady growth in private consumption, infrastructure investment programs like those related to the Dubai Expo 2020 or Qatar’s World Cup 2022, and the expiration of OPEC+ agreement.
Growth in non-GCC exporters is expected to be supported by higher capital expenditures.Fiscal balances in oil exporters are expected to improve as oil prices are forecast to stay firm and revenue-enhancing measures, such as VAT and energy subsidy reforms, are implemented.
These measures are expected to improve the non-oil share of government revenue in oil exporters. Higher oil prices are also expected to support remittance inflows (World Bank 2018j).
Growth in oil importers is expected to rise to 4.0 percent in 2018, as business and consumer confidence are spurred by business climate reforms and improving external demand.
Policies to relax foreign investment restrictions have supported higher capital flows, and are expected to boost foreign investment and trade flows, in part through relaxing financial constraints in firms(Kiendrebeogo and Minea 2017; Wood and Yang2016).
Tourism growth is also expected to improve upon stable security conditions. However, fiscal consolidation is expected to be an important headwind for activity among oil importers. In smaller oil importers (e.g., Jordan, Lebanon), external and fiscal imbalances remain a constraint to higher growth in the short-term. Reform programs, such as World Bank-supported initiatives to improve urban investment capacity or electricity performance, are expected to improve growth potential (World Bank 2017e, 2018k).
Similarly, public-private partnerships and bilateral agreements within the region are expected to support private sector participation in infrastructure investment, which benefits economic activity (Figure 2.4.2, Arezki et al. 2018; Calderon and Serven 2004).
Additional plans in energy subsidy reforms or tax revenue enhancement across oil importers will support further fiscal adjustment The short-term outlook in MENA is positive. Public-private partnerships are expected to support private sector participation in infrastructure investment.
However, geopolitical tensions may deter the recovery of tourism in oil importers.
Upside risks are associated with the possibility of higher-than-expected activity in key trading partners.
Risks
Risks to the outlook are diverse, but tilt to the downside. Key downside risks include renewed volatility in oil prices, an intensification of geopolitical tensions, and a slower-than-expected pace of reforms.
Nonetheless, favorable spillovers from stronger than expected activity in key trading partners and recovery in war-torn areas cannot be ruled out.
On the downside, the recent rise in oil prices may not be sustained in the short term, potentially due to higher-than-expected U.S. shale production This would reduce fiscal space in oil exporters and complicate fiscal management reform across many economies.
Tighter fiscal policy in oil exporters may lead to spillovers to oil importers via external linkages (e.g., FDI and remittances).
Volatility in oil prices may also affect oil importers through their current account exposure to higher oil prices.
The amplification of security concerns or escalation of geopolitical tensions may cloud oil importers’ tourism prospects, which have strengthened considerably in the past year. Intra- and interregional tensions in the region may also affect investor confidence and access to finance, such as through higher sovereign spreads.
Continued progress in reforms could face challenges to implementation. Among oil importers, potential social discontent about higher energy prices may lead to delayed implementation of fiscal adjustments. This issue may be further compounded by the high debt levels (in some cases exceeding 100 percent of GDP) among several economies in the region.
The loss of momentum in these reforms could negatively impact longer-term growth in the region.
On the upside, positive growth surprises in key advanced and emerging economy trading partners would provide an important support to growth in MENA.
Oil-importing economies in the Maghreb region are dependent on the Euro Area for trade, remittances, or financial flows. Stronger-thanexpected external demand could mitigate headwinds to growth associated with domestic policy uncertainty in smaller oil importers, or from potential spillovers associated with reduced FDI and remittance flows from GCC economies to oil importers.
Stronger-than-expected impacts from reconstruction programs and rising infrastructure investment in war-torn countries, such as Iraq, could lead to a sustained economic recovery. Associated spillover effects could unlock the potential for higher growth among other countries in the region.
This would also allow the restoration of access to health, water, or food (Devarajan and Mottaghi 2017a; World Bank 2018l) to these economies, and improve the conditions of neighboring host economies (e.g., Djibouti, Jordan, Lebanon) by providing more resources for public services for both host residents and refugees (Devarajan and Mottaghi 2017b).
Source: World Bank.
Emerging Markets have suffered in recent years due to low commodities prices and slower global demand. With signs that emerging markets were on the comeback trail in 2017, many analysts earlier this year believed that 2018 would be much brighter for Emerging Markets, however, there are signs that tailwinds are fading. The IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook that this year and next, "growth in emerging market and developing economies will rise before leveling off.”
Our economists believe that there is a growing divergence between developed and developing economies. Among developing nations with economies with relatively solid fundamentals and driven by commodity exports—especially oil—growth is accelerating this year going into next. However, higher yields in the United States, the rise in energy prices and large exposure to foreign debt are putting pressure on some oil-importing countries and those with persistent macroeconomic imbalances. This mostly results in heightened volatility in their financial and equity markets, as well as sizeable currency depreciations. Let’s take a closer look at what’s expected for some of these countries in the coming year:
China
Global and domestic headwinds are expected to impact growth in H2 and beyond. The brewing full-blown trade war between China and the United States is the main downside risk to the country’s economic outlook. Domestic threats, however, including a cooling property market and financial deleveraging, are also building. FocusEconomics panelists forecast the economy will grow 6.5% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2019, the economy is seen expanding 6.3%.
India
A normalization in cash conditions following the demonetization of late 2016 and the fading of disruptions from last year’s launch of the Goods and Services Tax should facilitate the economic recovery in FY 2018. Nonetheless, risks of fiscal slippage in the run-up to elections next year, concerns over the banking sector in India, increasing global trade tensions and higher oil prices all cloud prospects. Our panel expects GDP growth of 7.3% in FY 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 7.5% in FY 2019.
Russia
Growth in Russia is expected to pick up this year, thanks to strengthening private consumption and firmer oil prices. An improving labor market and low inflation should buoy household spending, while higher commodity prices will support export growth. That said, high geopolitical uncertainty and the possibility of further economic sanctions remain key risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP expanding 1.7% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2019, growth is seen steady at 1.7%.
Brazil
Brazil’s growth forecast was chopped for a third consecutive month as the truckers’ strike, a less supportive global backdrop and higher oil prices dent the country’s outlook. FocusEconomics panelists now see the Brazilian economy growing 1.7% this year, down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. A market-friendly outcome to October’s election remains critical to ensuring a sustainable recovery; however, this is far from certain. Next year, GDP is seen growing 2.5%.
Mexico
Household spending and exports are expected to drive growth this year in Mexico. Tight job markets—both domestically and stateside—and improved private-sector lending should support private consumption, while healthy factory output in the U.S. should bolster manufacturing exports. Uncertainty over NAFTA continues to weigh heavily on investment prospects, although the odds of reaching a deal have improved in recent weeks. On politics, most analysts currently expect AMLO to govern as a centrist. FocusEconomics panelists expect growth of 2.2% in 2018, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2019, panelists see growth stable at 2.2%.
Argentina
Despite a healthy first quarter, the pace of growth is expected to slow sharply this year. The loss of agricultural output following the severe drought; extremely high interest rates and currency volatility, which will weigh on investment decisions; and consumer spending constrained by low confidence and rapid inflation are seen driving this deceleration. Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast foresee the economy expanding 0.4% in 2018, down 0.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2019, growth is expected to reach 1.9%.
Turkey
Economic growth in Turkey will likely weaken in the coming quarters, on tighter financial conditions, shaky investor sentiment and a higher oil import bill. Exchange rate volatility, geopolitical tensions, a gaping current account deficit and elevated inflation pose downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists expect growth of 4.2% this year, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. They see growth of 3.5% in 2019.
Romania
Higher inflation and a loss in consumer confidence should lead to a marked slowdown in consumer spending this year, denting GDP growth in Romania. Although the expansion in fixed investment should gain some strength, low EU funds absorption will limit the extent of the acceleration. Downside risks stem from widening fiscal and current account deficits. FocusEconomics panelists expect growth of 4.1% for 2018, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.6% in 2019.
Egypt
The Egyptian economy is expected to grow at a solid pace in FY 2019. This is due to higher investment on the back of increased government spending and an improved regulatory environment. Moreover, the external sector should continue to benefit from the weaker pound. However, large fiscal imbalances and the higher price of oil will weigh on prospects. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to expand 5.1% in FY 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 4.9% in FY 2020.
South Africa
Greater political stability and firm credit ratings bode well for the South African economy in 2018 as full-year economic prospects look set to largely ride out the weak first quarter. Real wage gains should support stronger household spending this year, while the government’s push to attract investment should bolster capital outlays. Nevertheless, fiscal slippage and a slow reform agenda are likely to constrain growth over the medium term. FocusEconomics analysts expect growth of 1.6% in 2018, down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.0% in 2019.
Nigeria
Higher oil prices, improved liquidity and increased public spending in the run-up to the 2019 elections should fuel faster growth this year in Nigeria. However, political uncertainty, as well as security concerns, continues to pose risks to economic activity. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to increase 2.4% in 2018, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last year’s projection. Next year, growth is seen rising to 2.9%.
The Dubai Land Department (DLD) recently organised the "Dubai Real Estate Sector Profile" forum to announce the performance report of the real estate sector over the past years, and the role of data in enhancing the transparency of the sector.
The forum included the launch of the "Deraya" report and the annual performance report of the real estate sector 2018.
The "Deraya" report was initiated by the Department of Real Estates Studies and Research of the Real Estate Promotion and Investment Management Sector at the DLD, in collaboration with Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated (JLL) and Cavendish Maxwell, and the annual report of the real estate sector performance 2018.
These reports contribute to enhancing Dubai's real estate market, positioning it as the world's leading real estate market.
According to the JLL Global Real Estate Transparency Index 2018, Dubai was among the top three global cities regarding real estate market transparency.
DLD director-general Sultan Butti bin Mejren said these reports provided a key database for media, investors and international classification agencies to access insights on the performance of Dubai’s real estate market with complete transparency.
"We seek to achieve some key objectives through these reports and highlight the role of the real estate sector and its close ties with other economic sectors. The reports underline the importance of the real estate sector as a productive element that supports all other economic sectors, reflecting positively on the real estate sector’s growing contributions to Dubai’s GDP," stated Bin Mejren.
"The current real estate sector enjoys several positive indicators that predict growth across many of its segments, supported by the annual report of the real estate sector and the 2018 Deraya report, which represents integrated strategic cooperation between the public and private sectors," he added.
The reports are also a testament to Dubai’s status as one of the world’s top attractive investment destinations that ensures investors future high yields, said the top official.
"The reports offer a deeper insight into the performance of Dubai’s real estate sector in 2017, furthering the transparency level across the sector. They are aimed at increasing professionalism across Dubai’s real estate environment, consolidating the real estate information sources, and elevating DLD to become the leading real estate reference," remarked Bin Mejren.
"The reports also work towards bolstering the attractiveness of Dubai’s real estate market, identifying market trends and needs, and providing real estate studies companies and real estate experts access to relevant data," he noted.
Majida Ali Rashid, CEO of the Real Estate Promotion and Investment Management Sector at the DLD, said: "We are proud to have cooperated with two of the world's leading companies, in line with our commitment to engage our partners and customers."
"The launch of Deraya, our joint research initiative, is part of our collaborations with real estate consultancy companies and experts in the field of real estate studies," she added.
Source: Trade ArabiaArabia
Indicating a boost for the ecosystem, Bahrain Development Bank (BDB) has successfully closed its US$100 million venture capital “fund of funds” to support startups in Bahrain and across the MENA region. The Al Waha "fund of funds" is a definite mark for the growth of entrepreneurship in the region as it aims to support by providing capital to Bahraini startups, as well as attracting new funds in the region.
Last week, the Limited Partners (LPs) Advisory Committee met to strategize the fund’s direction and allocation of $35 million into a series of venture funds. Its LP's include Mumtalakat, National Bank of Bahrain, Batelco Group, Tamkeen and Bahrain Development Bank, among others, with BDB as the General Partner (GP) managing the fund.
Following the closure of the fund, H.E. Sheikh Mohammed bin Essa Al Khalifa, Chairman of the Al Waha Fund of Funds Advisory Committee commented on the progress made in the allocation of the capital raised. “One of the key constraints on the development of the startup and technology ecosystem in the region is lack of access to capital. This fund can help to make a significant difference to that challenge, enabling entrepreneurs to realize the potential of their ideas.”
With the Al Waha Fund of Funds along with the opening of fintech co-working space FinTech Bay and regulatory sandbox for fintech ventures to test out their concepts, entrepreneurs, the time is ripe to leverage initiatives enabling entrepreneurship.
Source: Entrepreneurship Middle East
