The 13^th World Chambers Congress (WCC) recently concluded at Palexpo in Geneva. This event brought together nearly 1,500 participants from 117 countries and featured 165 speakers, focusing on the theme of "Multilateralism in Service of Peace and Prosperity."

Organized by the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), the World Chambers Federation (WCF), and the Geneva Chamber of Commerce, Industry and Services (CCIG), this event aimed to foster partnerships and global business opportunities. Held every two years, it provided chamber of commerce leaders and professionals with the opportunity to exchange ideas, share best practices, and expand their networks.

Renowned speakers such as Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director-General of the World Trade Organization (WTO), António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations, and Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum, attended to share their vision on diversity, its impact on growth, the role of innovation, and the importance of sustainability for the future.

"The Congress showcased the spirit of Geneva, the capital of multilateralism, in favour of peace and prosperity. This essence was enshrined in the adoption of the Geneva Manifesto. As the most significant event ever organized by the CCIG in its 158-year history, the World Congress also invigorated the Geneva economy, with significant economic benefits," said Vincent Subilia, Director-General of the CCIG.

Three intense days of debates on multilateralism, inclusion, and innovation

At the opening of the day dedicated to the theme "Demystifying Multilateralism," Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director-General of the WTO, called for a rethink of globalization to make it beneficial for all and emphasized the need to strengthen international cooperation to address global economic challenges. "We must push back against pressures for global economic fragmentation, which would be costly and potentially weaken supply chain resilience," she stated. "A better way forward is what we call 're-globalization': deeper and more dispersed markets achieved by bringing more people and places from the margins of the global economy into the mainstream." She also urged business leaders to support "digital globalization."

Philippe Varin, President of ICC France, echoed these remarks by emphasizing the importance of multilateralism in fostering the technological innovation required to address major challenges such as climate change, while improving the prosperity of the global population as a whole.

The second day, dedicated to innovation for all, highlighted the significance of continuous innovation for businesses, especially micro-, small-, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs). Sustainability was at the heart of discussions on the third day. The reputation risk associated with environmental crimes in the supply chain was emphasized, and companies were encouraged to exercise due diligence to preventing them.

Multilateralism for a prosperous 21^st century

Multilateralism is more essential than ever, according to Tatiana Valovaya, Director-General of the United Nations Office at Geneva. However, she highlighted the need to include the voices of more member states and marginalized groups to ensure greater inclusivity. Panellists agreed that the private sector must play a key role in shaping global governance rules, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that represent 90% of global trade. To promote global growth, it is crucial to connect SMEs to the benefits of international trade. However, as Mohammad Ali Rashed Lootah, President of Dubai Chambers, pointed out, there are obstacles that limit their access, such as the lack of a unified export system, information disparities, and high import duties. One potential solution is digitization.

Digital transformation, the key for SMEs to access the global market

During the session "Facilitating Trade: Building Partnerships for Global Growth," moderated by Barbara Ramos, Head of Research and Export Strategy at the International Trade Centre (ITC), the speakers Arancha González, Dean of the Paris School of International Affairs (PISA), Mohammad Ali Rashed Lootah, President of Dubai Chambers, and Eric Loeb, Executive Vice President of Salesforce, highlighted the benefits of digital trade: faster, cheaper, transparent, and accessible exchanges for all. This is particularly important for emerging markets where economic opportunities are often lost due to reliance on paper-based systems. Digitization can act as an equalizer for small-scale organizations, enabling them to access the same platforms as large companies. Artificial intelligence can play a crucial role in helping SMEs access information and expertise. However, as noted by Arancha González, the fragmentation of the digital space and the lack of technological skills can pose additional challenges. Promoting data sharing and interoperability is also essential.

The implementation of digital trade also requires the adoption of universal standards for the legal recognition of digital documents, for example, through the Model Law on Electronic Transferable Records. G20 countries are actively working on the necessary regulatory reforms and committing to trade agreements that promote digitization. As the speakers noted, while currently only 1% of global trade is digital, digitization will simply be inevitable in the not-so-distant future.

Effective protection of intellectual property for all

The protection of the value of innovative achievements was at the centre of the session titled "Innovation by All and for All." The access of SMEs to the knowledge and conditions necessary to protect their intellectual property rights is far from optimal. However, for these businesses, the financial consequences of not protecting their intellectual property rights can be fatal. Economist at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Piotr Stryszowski emphasizes regarding counterfeiting: "For large companies, it means less revenue, less profit. For an SME, it means a huge risk of bankruptcy."

According to Christina Wainikka, an expert at the Confederation of Swedish Enterprise, the vast majority of SMEs do not seek to register their intellectual property, "and in many ways, it is the fault of those who are supposed to facilitate this process. Because we often talk about intellectual property rights in very abstract terms instead of presenting them for what they are: a sales opportunity; a chance to provide additional concrete value."

The protection of intellectual property is of particular importance in the African context. Registration has increased by 10% in recent years, indicating a growing awareness of the economic value of intellectual property and its role in promoting innovation and economic growth on the continent. Rebecca Enonchong, a Cameroonian tech entrepreneur, notes that developing countries tend to be seen as beneficiaries of innovation rather than providers of innovation. "And that is obviously not true. It is about harnessing existing talent and preserving their achievements. This means, above all, developing policies and mechanisms to protect SMEs when they compete with large companies. Because the current reality is that these companies simply outpace them and outspend them," she said.

Daren Tang, Director-General of the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO), calls for "a more inclusive intellectual property ecosystem, especially for women, youth, startups, and SMEs, which represent 90% of businesses and provide 70% of jobs worldwide." Chambers of commerce also have a crucial role to play in raising awareness and providing training to SMEs on the effective protection of their rights, as well as supporting them with access to specialized resources and advice.

The role of the private sector and the adoption of best practices

The panellists agreed that the private sector must play a major role in adopting best practices and shaping global governance rules. As small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) account for 90% of global trade, it is important to amplify their voices, stated Pamela Coke-Hamilton, Executive Director of the ITC.

Corporate responsibility in the supply chain was seen as an opportunity to promote global prosperity by integrating responsible practices. Transparency, traceability, and the use of blockchain technology were highlighted as key elements for sustainable supply chains.

Exceptional achievements awarded, an opportunity for Turkey to shine

Outstanding achievements by Chambers of Commerce from around the world were recognized through the presentation of four awards. The Auckland Business Chamber of Commerce won the "Best Partnership Project" award for its project focusing on mental health and well-being of business leaders, while the Alexandria Chamber of Commerce was awarded in the category of "Best Unconventional Project" for its innovative project utilizing solar energy, creating jobs, and reducing CO2 emissions.

Turkey claimed the other two awards: the "Best Chamber Model Innovation Project" distinction was won by the Ankara Chamber of Commerce for its innovative project offering services tailored to the needs of its members, and the Gaziantep Chamber of Commerce received the "Best Gender Equality Project" award for its project promoting the autonomy of women entrepreneurs. These successes demonstrate the dynamism of Turkey and highlight the crucial role of Turkish Chambers of Commerce in the country's economic and social development.

It is worth noting that Chambers of Commerce from the Austrian Federal Economic Chamber (Austria) were among the finalists in the "Best Chamber Model Innovation Project" category for its project “Commercial Approach to Anti-Corruption”, Dubai Chambers (UAE), for its project Intelligent Certificate of Origin and Business NSW (Australia) for its project Business NSW Critical Response Business Hub.

A very Swiss closing ceremony

During the closing ceremony of the congress, Helene Budliger Artieda, State Secretary for Economic Affairs (SECO) of the Swiss Confederation, addressed an attentive audience. Her speech, filled with significance and support, aimed to demonstrate the Swiss government's commitment to the private sector, acknowledging its essential role in the country's economic prosperity

To mark the end of the congress, Barbara Klossner ignited the audience by performing songs in Swiss German, including the famous Swiss traditional chant called "yodel." She captivated the audience by inviting them to join her in an energetic dance, creating a friendly and lively atmosphere.

Recommendations for a better and more prosperous future for all

The congress provided an opportunity to formulate recommendations aimed at strengthening international cooperation, promoting equitable access to economic opportunities, combating inequalities, fostering digital transformation, and promoting responsible innovation. By signing the "Geneva Manifesto," the organizers of the Congress committed to redoubling efforts to make a difference in the real economy in favour of economic inclusion, global cooperation, and sustainable development.

These recommendations highlight the importance of innovation in ensuring a sustainable future. It is crucial to invest in research and development and foster forward-thinking. The use of artificial intelligence was emphasized as a means to find innovative solutions in various sectors, including nutrition, while considering long-term environmental and social consequences. Actively promoting the role of innovation through public-private partnerships and communication and awareness campaigns was suggested. By investing in sustainable solutions and embracing a culture of innovation, a better and more prosperous future for all can be shaped.

Next World Chambers Congress in two years in Melbourne

With gratitude to all participants, the CCIG officially handed over the reins to the co-organizer of the 14^th World Chambers Congress, which will take place in Melbourne, Australia, in September 2025. It promises to continue bringing together economic leaders and stakeholders from around the world and promoting international cooperation and economic innovation.

Le 13^ème Congrès mondial des chambres de commerce (WCG) s'est récemment clôturé à Palexpo à Genève, cet évènement a réuni du 21 au 23 juin 2023, près de 1 500 participants provenant de 117 pays et 165 orateurs sur le thème du « Multilatéralisme au service de la paix et de la prospérité ».

Organisé par la Chambre de commerce internationale (ICC), la Fédération mondiale des chambres de commerce (WCF) ainsi que la Chambre de commerce, d'industrie et des services de Genève (CCIG), cet événement vise à favoriser les partenariats et les opportunités d'affaires à l'échelle mondiale. Comme tous les deux ans, il a offert aux dirigeants et professionnels des chambres de commerce l'occasion d'échanger des idées, de partager leurs bonnes pratiques et de développer leur réseau.

Des conférencières et conférenciers renommés, tels que Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, directrice générale de l'Organisation mondiale du commerce (OMC), António Guterres, secrétaire général des Nations Unies et Klaus Schwab, fondateur et directeur du Forum économique mondial, sont venus partager leur vision de la diversité, de son effet sur la croissance, du rôle de l’innovation et de l’importance de la durabilité pour l’avenir.

« Le Congrès a fait rayonner l’esprit de Genève, capitale du multilatéralisme, en faveur de la paix et de la prospérité. Cet ADN s’est vu consacré par l’adoption du Manifeste de Genève. Plus important événement jamais organisé par la CCIG en 158 ans d’histoire, le Congrès mondial a également fait battre le pouls de l’économie genevoise avec des retombées économiques importantes à la clef » a déclaré Vincent Subilia, directeur général de la CCIG.

Trois jours intenses de débats sur le multilatéralisme, l'inclusion et l'innovation

En ouverture de la journée consacrée au thème « Démystifier le multilatéralisme », Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, directrice générale de l’OMC, a appelé à repenser la mondialisation pour la rendre bénéfique à tous et à renforcer la coopération internationale pour relever les défis économiques mondiaux. « Nous devons repousser les pressions en faveur de la fragmentation économique mondiale, qui sera coûteuse et pourrait bien affaiblir la résilience de la chaîne d’approvisionnement », a-t-elle déclaré. « Une meilleure voie à suivre est ce que nous appelons la remondialisation : des marchés plus profonds et déconcentrés obtenus en amenant plus de personnes et de lieux des marges de l’économie mondiale au grand public. ». Elle a également exhorté les chefs d’entreprise à soutenir la « mondialisation électronique ».

Philippe Varin, président de ICC France, a fait écho à ces propos en soulignant l'importance du multilatéralisme pour favoriser l'innovation technologique requise pour relever les défis majeurs tels que le changement climatique, tout en améliorant la prospérité de l'ensemble de la population mondiale.

Consacrée à l'innovation pour tous, la deuxième journée a mis en évidence l'importance de l'innovation continue pour les entreprises, en particulier les micro-, petites et moyennes entreprises (MPME). La durabilité a été au cœur des discussions de la troisième journée. Le risque de réputation associé aux crimes environnementaux dans la chaîne d'approvisionnement a été souligné, et les entreprises incitées à exercer une diligence raisonnable pour les prévenir.

Le multilatéralisme pour un XXI^e siècle prospère

Le multilatéralisme est plus essentiel que jamais, selon Tatiana Valovaya, directrice générale de l’Office des Nations Unies de Genève. Cependant, elle a relevé la nécessité de prendre en compte davantage de voix d'États membres et de groupes marginalisés pour garantir une plus grande inclusivité. Les panélistes ont convenu que le secteur privé doit jouer un rôle clé dans l'élaboration des règles de gouvernance mondiale, en particulier les petites et moyennes entreprises (PME) qui représentent 90% du commerce mondial. Pour favoriser la croissance mondiale, il est crucial de connecter les PME aux avantages du commerce international. Toutefois, ainsi que le relève Mohammad Ali Rashed Lootah, président de Dubai Chambers, des obstacles leur en limitent l’accès : absence d’un système unifié d'exportation, divergences d'informations et droits d'importation élevés. Une solution potentielle : la numérisation.

La transformation numérique, la clé des PME vers le marché mondial

Pendant la session « Faciliter le commerce : établir des partenariats pour la croissance mondiale », modéré par Barbara Ramos, cheffe Recherche et stratégies pour les exportations au Centre du commerce international (ITC), les intervenants Arancha González, doyenne de la Paris School of International Affairs (PISA), Mohammad Ali Rashed Lootah, président de Dubai Chambers, et Eric Loeb, vice-président exécutif de Salesforce, ont souligné les avantages du commerce numérique : échanges plus rapides, moins coûteux, transparents et accessibles à tous. Cela revêt une importance particulière pour les marchés émergents où des opportunités économiques sont souvent perdues en raison de la dépendance à des systèmes basés sur le papier. La numérisation peut agir comme un égalisateur pour les organisations de petite taille, en leur permettant d'accéder aux mêmes plateformes que les grandes entreprises. L'intelligence artificielle peut jouer un rôle essentiel pour aider les PME à accéder à l'information et à l'expertise. Cependant, ainsi que le note Arancha González, la fragmentation de l'espace numérique et le manque de compétences technologiques peuvent poser d'autres défis. Il faut aussi promouvoir le partage de données et l'interopérabilité.

La mise en œuvre du commerce numérique nécessite de plus l'adoption de normes universelles, pour une reconnaissance juridique des documents numériques, par exemple grâce à la Loi type sur les documents transférables électroniques. Les pays du G20 travaillent activement sur les réformes réglementaires nécessaires et s'engagent dans des accords commerciaux favorables à la numérisation. Les intervenants l’ont noté : alors qu’elle ne concerne actuellement que 1% du commerce mondial, la numérisation sera tout simplement inévitable dans un avenir pas si lointain.

Pour tous, une protection efficace de la propriété intellectuelle

La protection de la valeur des réalisations innovantes était au centre de la session intitulée «  L'innovation par tous et pour tous ». L’accès des MPME aux connaissances et aux conditions nécessaires pour protéger leurs droits de propriété intellectuelle est loin d’être optimum. Or, pour ces entreprises, les conséquences financières de la non-protection de leurs droits de propriété intellectuelle peuvent être fatidiques. Économiste auprès de l’Organisation de coopération et de développement économiques (OCDE), Piotr Stryszowski souligne, au sujet de la contrefaçon : « pour les grandes entreprises, cela signifie moins de revenus, moins de profits. Pour une MPME, cela signifie un risque énorme de faillite ».

Selon Christina Wainikka, experte à la Confédération des entreprises suédoises, la grande majorité des MPME ne cherchent pas à enregistrer leur propriété intellectuelle, « et, à bien des égards, c’est la faute de ceux qui sont censés faciliter ce processus. Parce que nous parlons souvent des droits de propriété intellectuelle en termes très abstraits au lieu de les présenter pour ce qu’ils sont : une opportunité de vente ; une chance d’apporter une valeur supplémentaire et concrète ».

La protection de la propriété intellectuelle revêt une importance particulière dans le contexte africain. L'enregistrement y a augmenté de 10% ces dernières années, ce qui témoigne de la prise de conscience croissante de la valeur économique de la propriété intellectuelle et de son rôle dans la promotion de l'innovation et la croissance économique du continent. Entrepreneure technologique camerounaise, Rebecca Enonchong constate que les pays en développement ont tendance à être considérés comme des bénéficiaires de l’innovation plutôt que comme des pourvoyeurs d’innovation. « Et ce n’est évidemment pas vrai. Il s’agit d’exploiter les talents existants et de préserver leurs réalisations. Cela signifie, plus que tout, développer les politiques et les mécanismes pour protéger les MPME lorsqu’elles sont en concurrence avec les grandes entreprises. Parce que la réalité actuelle est que ces entreprises finissent simplement par les dépasser et les dépenser », a-t-elle déclaré.

Daren Tang, directeur général de l’Organisation mondiale de la propriété intellectuelle (OMPI) en appelle à « un écosystème de propriété intellectuelle plus inclusif, en particulier pour les femmes, les jeunes, les start-up et les MPME, qui représentent 90% des entreprises et offrent 70% des emplois dans le monde ». Les chambres de commerce ont aussi un rôle crucial à jouer pour sensibiliser et former les PME à la protection efficace de leurs droits, et les soutenir par un accès à des ressources et à des conseils spécialisés.

Le rôle du secteur privé et l'adoption des meilleures pratiques

Les panélistes ont convenu que le secteur privé doit jouer un rôle majeur dans l’adoption des meilleures pratiques et l’élaboration des règles de gouvernance mondiale. Les petites et moyennes entreprises (MPME) étant responsables de 90% du commerce mondial, il est important d’amplifier leur voix, a déclaré Pamela Coke-Hamilton, directrice exécutive ITC.

La responsabilité des entreprises dans la chaîne d'approvisionnement a été considérée comme une opportunité de promouvoir la prospérité mondiale en intégrant des pratiques responsables. La transparence, la traçabilité et l'utilisation de la technologie blockchain ont été mises en avant pour des chaînes d'approvisionnement durables.

Des réalisations exceptionnelles primées, l’occasion pour la Turquie de briller

Les réalisations exceptionnelles des Chambres de commerce du monde entier ont été récompensées par la remise de quatre prix. Auckland Business Chamber of Commerce a ainsi remporté le prix « Best Partnership Project » pour son projet axé sur la santé mentale et le bien-être des chefs d'entreprise et Alexandria Chamber of Commerce a été primée dans la catégorie « Best Unconventional Project » pour son projet novateur utilisant de l'énergie solaire et créant des emplois tout en réduisant les émissions de CO₂.

La Turquie a raflé les deux autres prix : la distinction « Best Chamber Model Innovation Project » a été remportée par Ankara Chamber of Commerce pour son projet innovant d’offre de services adaptés aux besoins des membres et Gaziantep Chamber of Commerce a reçu la récompense « Best Gender Equality Project » pour son projet favorisant l'autonomie des femmes entrepreneures. Ces succès témoignent du dynamisme de la Turquie et soulignent le rôle essentiel des chambres de commerce turques dans le développement économique et social du pays.

Notons encore que les chambres de commerce de la Chambre économique fédérale autrichienne (Autriche) figuraient parmi les finalistes dans la catégorie "Best Chamber Model Innovation Project" pour son projet "Commercial Approach to Anti-Corruption", Dubai Chambers (UAE), pour son projet Intelligent Certificate of Origin et Business NSW (Australie) pour son projet Business NSW Critical Response Business Hub.

Une clôture très helvétique

Lors de la cérémonie de clôture de congrès, Helene Budliger Artieda, secrétaire d'État à l’économie (SECO) de la Confédération helvétique, a pris la parole devant un public attentif. Son discours, empreint d'importance et de soutien, visait à témoigner de l'engagement du gouvernement suisse envers le secteur privé, reconnaissant ainsi son rôle essentiel dans la prospérité économique du pays.

Pour marquer la fin du congrès, Barbara Klossner a enflammé la salle en interprétant des chansons en suisse allemand, y compris le célèbre chant traditionnel suisse appelé le « yodel ». Elle a captivé le public en l’invitant à se joindre à elle pour une danse endiablée, créant ainsi une ambiance conviviale et animée.

Des recommandations pour un avenir meilleur et plus prospère pour tous

Le congrès a été l’occasion de formuler des recommandations visant à renforcer la coopération internationale, promouvoir l'accès équitable aux opportunités économiques, lutter contre les inégalités, favoriser la transformation numérique et promouvoir l'innovation responsable. Par la signature du « Manifeste de Genève », les organisateurs du Congrès se sont engagés à redoubler d’efforts pour faire la différence dans l'économie réelle en faveur de l'inclusion économique, de la coopération mondiale et du développement durable.

Ces recommandations mettent en évidence l'importance de l'innovation pour assurer un avenir durable. Il est crucial d'investir dans la recherche et le développement et de favoriser une pensée avant-gardiste. L'utilisation de l'intelligence artificielle a été soulignée comme un moyen de trouver des solutions novatrices dans divers secteurs, y compris celui de la nutrition, tout en tenant compte des conséquences environnementales et sociales à long terme. Il a été suggéré de promouvoir activement le rôle de l'innovation par le biais de partenariats public-privé et de campagnes de communication et de sensibilisation. En investissant dans des solutions durables, en adoptant une culture de l'innovation, un avenir meilleur et plus prospère pour tous peut être façonné.

Rendez-vous pris dans deux ans à Melbourne

Après avoir remercié tous les participants, la CCIG a passé officiellement le relais au co-organisateur du 14^ème Congrès mondial des Chambres de commerce qui se tiendra à Melbourne en Australie en septembre 2025 : la promesse de continuer à rassembler les leaders économiques et les acteurs du monde entier et à promouvoir la coopération internationale et l'innovation économique.

فن الحرب" هو كتاب استراتيجية عسكرية كلاسيكي كتبه الجنرال الصيني سون تزو في القرن الخامس قبل الميلاد. يتكون الكتاب من 13 فصلًا، يركز كل منها على جوانب مختلفة من الحرب، مثل التخطيط والتكتيكات والقيادة.

يؤكد سون تزو على أهمية التحضير وفهم نقاط القوة والضعف الخاصة بالفرد وكذلك تلك الموجودة لدى العدو. كما يشدد على أهمية استخدام الخداع والمرونة للحصول على مزايا على ساحة المعركة.

واحدة من المفاهيم الأكثر شهرة في الكتاب هي فكرة "الفوز بدون قتال"، حيث يتم تحقيق النصر من خلال التخطيط الاستراتيجي والتحركات بدلاً من الصراع المباشر.

بشكل عام، يوفر كتاب "فن الحرب" نظرات قيمة حول طبيعة الحرب ودروس لكل من الاستراتيجيين العسكريين وقادة الأعمال والسياسيين.

الأفكار الرئيسية لكتاب "فن الحرب":

1. التحضير: يؤكد سون تزو على أهمية التحضير والتخطيط قبل الذهاب إلى المعركة. يعتقد أن النجاح في الحرب يتم تحديده قبل بدء المعركة، من خلال عوامل مثل تحليل التضاريس والطقس ونشر القوات.
2. فهم نقاط القوة والضعف: يشدد سون تزو على أهمية فهم نقاط القوة والضعف الخاصة بالفرد وكذلك تلك الموجودة لدى العدو. يقترح أن الجنرال الذي يعرف نفسه وعدوه سيفوز بالمعارك، بينما الجنرال الذي يعرف نفسه فقط أو عدوه سيفوز فقط في نصف الوقت.
3. المرونة: يشجع سون تزو على المرونة في المعركة، مقترحًا أن يكون الجنرال قادرًا على التكيف مع التغيرات وضبط استراتيجياته وفقًا لذلك. يؤكد على أهمية عدم الارتباط بأي خطة واحدة بشكل زائد، والقدرة على تغيير الخطط استجابة لمعلومات جديدة.
4. الخداع: يناقش سون تزو أهمية استخدام الخداع والتضليل في الحرب. يقترح أن يكون الجنرال قادرًا على إخفاء الحقيقة عن العدو من خلال تكتيكات مثل الخداع، والانسحابات الزائفة، وخلق مظاهر زائفة للقوة أو الضعف.
5. الفوز بدون قتال: المفهوم الأكثر شهرة لسون تزو هو فكرة "الفوز بدون قتال". يقترح أن الهدف النهائي للحرب ليس تدمير العدو، ولكن تحقيق النصر بأقل قدر من الخسائر البشرية والموارد. يدعو إلى استخدام تكتيكات مختلفة وتشمل العديد من الاستراتيجيات والتكتيكات التي يمكن استخدامها في الحرب، مثل الاستخدام الذكي للقوة العسكرية، والتناقض في السلوك والتحركات، والتغلب على العدو دون مواجهة مباشرة، والاستغلال الذكي لنقاط ضعف العدو، وتخفيض خسائر جيشك، والتأكيد على الدفاع عن القوة والهجوم بشكل متزامن، وتقليل الوقت الذي يقضيه الجيش في الحرب، وتفادي الحرب إذا كان ذلك ممكنًا.

بشكل عام، يوفر "فن الحرب" دليلًا شاملًا لإستراتيجية الحرب التي كان لها تأثير كبير على مدى القرون. لقد تم تطبيق تعاليمها ليس فقط في الحرب ولكن أيضا في المجالات الأخرى مثل الأعمال التجارية والسياسة والعديد من المجالات الأخرى.

تشير التقارير والصحف والمجلات الاقتصادية الدولية الى أن الاقتصادات الكبرى في العالم سوف تشهد تباطؤا في النمو. فوفقا لتقرير صدر عن مؤتمر الأمم المتحدة للتجارة والتنمية (أونكتاد)[1] فان العالم يتجه نحو ركود طويل الأمد ما لم تتغير السياسات المالية والنقدية التي تسيطر على بعض الاقتصادات المتقدمة بسرعة. كما حذر البنك الدولي من أن الاقتصاد العالمي للعام 2023 في حالة محفوفة بالمخاطر، وسط ارتفاع معدلات التضخم وأسعار الفائدة، وانخفاض الاستثمار، والحرب المستمرة في أوكرانيا. حيث يتوقع صندوق النقد الدولي تراجع النمو الاقتصادي الى 2.7٪ في العام 2023 مقارنة بـ 3.2٪ في العام 2022. وهو تباطؤ عالمي من شأنه أن يؤدي الى انخفاض الناتج المحلي الإجمالي الى أقل مما كان عليه قبل جائحة كورونا ويكلف العالم أكثر من 17 تريليون دولار في الإنتاجية المفقودة. ويقول الصندوق ان توقعات النمو في العام 2023 ستكون الأدنى منذ العام 2001. كما حذر كبير الاقتصاديين في الصندوق بيير اوليفييه في تصريحات له لصحيفة فايننشال تايمز البريطانية من أن هناك احتمالا لتهاوي النمو العالمي لأقل من 1٪ في العام 2023.

وتشهد الاقتصادات الكبرى لكل من الولايات المتحدة وأوروبا والصين توقعات النمو منخفضة. ووفقا للبنك الدولي فان الولايات المتحدة ستواجه معدل نمو بنسبة لا تزيد عن 1 في المائة في عام 2023، بينما من المتوقع أن يقترب النمو في أوروبا من الصفر، ومن المتوقع ألا يزيد نمو الصين عن 4.3٪ (الشكل 1)، كما أن من المتوقع أن يبلغ معدل البطالة في أمريكا حوالي 3٪، مع استمرار الزيادة في العجز في الميزان الجاري لتصل الى اكثر من 800 مليار دولار في العام 2023.

وبالرغم من أن الحديث يدور عن أن جميع المناطق ستتأثر بهذا الركود الا أن أجراس الإنذار تدق بشكل أكبر بالنسبة للبلدان النامية، خاصة مع تفاقم مشكلة الديون. كما يورد التقرير سببا اخر للقلق الاقتصادي وذلك مع اشتداد التأثيرات المناخية، حيث تزداد الخسائر والأضرار داخل الاقتصادات الضعيفة التي تفتقر إلى الموارد المالية للتعامل مع الكوارث.

ويحذر الأونكتاد من أن التضييق النقدي المفرط وعدم كفاية الدعم المالي يمكن أن يعرضا اقتصادات العالم النامي لمزيد من الأزمات المتتالية. ومن المفترض أن تعاني البلدان ذات الدخل المتوسط في أمريكا اللاتينية والبلدان منخفضة الدخل في أفريقيا من اثار التباطؤ هذا العام، مع احتمالية أن تطفو مشكلة التخلف عن سداد الديون الى السطح.

كما حذّرت مديرة صندوق النقد الدولي كريستالينا جورجيفا، في تصريحات لها من أن الاقتصاد العالمي سيشهد أوضاعاً صعبة في عام 2023، إذ سيكون الركود الاقتصادي واستمرار ارتفاع مستويات التضخم سمته الأبرز، هذا في وقت تشهد محركاته، أي الاقتصاد الأمريكي والصيني والأوروبي، تباطؤاً كبيراً منذ الربع الأخير للسنة الماضية.

وتلتقي هذه التحذيرات مع توقعات أخرى قاتمة، أطلقتها عدد من المؤسسات المالية الدولية الأخرى، والبنوك المركزية الأوروبية، ترى هي أيضاً أن شبح الركود الاقتصادي سيلازم الاقتصاد العالمي، وسيرافقه من 2022 إلى 2023.

يقول الملياردير الأمريكي ستانلي ميلر (Stanley Miller)، المستثمر الذي نال شهرة في عام 1992 بعدما ضارب على انهيار الجنيه الإسترليني وحقق مكاسب وصلت الى عشرة مليارات دولار "اذا لم نشهد ركود اقتصاديا في العام 2023 فسيكون ذلك اشبه بالمعجزة" لان السناريو المتوقع للنمو في العام المقبل سيكون 2.4٪ في احسن الأحوال وقد يتباطأ الى 1.2٪ وهو نفس المستوى التي كان عليه النمو ابان الازمة المالية العالمية في العام 2008.

الحرب في اوكرانيا

تلقي الحرب الدائرة بين روسيا وأوكرانيا بثقلها على الاقتصاد العالمي، خاصة ما يتعلق بالإمدادات من الحبوب.

وقد أدى اندلاع الحرب الى ارتفاع أسعار المواد الغذائية والاسمدة مما أضر بالمستوردين ودفع العديد من البلدان الى فرض قيود على الصادرات. فاصبح هناك حوالي 345 مليون شخص تتعرض حياتهم الى خطر فوري من انعدام الأمن الغذائي الحاد. ووفقا لبرنامج الغذاء العالمي ينام اكثر من 828 مليون شخص حول العالم جائعا كل ليلة. اكثر الدول معاناة هي الدول التي تعتمد على الواردات الغذائية من أوكرانيا وروسيا ويبلغ عددها 48 دولة معظمها من البلدان ذات الدخل المنخفض[2].

المصدر: بيانات صندوق النقد الدولي.

معدلات التضخم ومشكلة الديون

يعتبر التضخم ظاهرة عالمية فاقمتها الحرب الروسية في أوكرانيا وتعطل سلاسل التوريد العالمية بعد إغلاقات "كوفيد-19" في الصين. ويتوقع صندوق النقد الدولي أن ترتفع أسعار المستهلكين الى مستويات قياسية في الاقتصادات الصاعدة والنامية لتصل الى 10٪ في العام 2022 قبل أن تهبط بشكل طفيف الى نحو 8.1٪ في العام 2023. ورغم أن الناتج الإجمالي تخطى مستوى 100 تريليون دولار لأول مرة خلال العام 2022 فان النمو مهدد بالتوقف وفقا لمركز بحوث الاقتصاد والأعمال (CEBR) في بريطانيا. كما أن رفع سعر الفائدة سوف يزيد من عبء القروض الجديدة والقائمة، ويؤدي الى تراجع الطلب الكلي وتراجع وتيرة الاستثمار وتأثر القطاعات الإنتاجية وسوق العمل. ومن المتوقع أن تواجه الأسر والشركات في مختلف انحاء العالم صعوبات اقتصادية قوية، بسبب ارتفاع أسعار السلع وخاصة الغذاء والطاقة - واستمرار البنوك المركزية في رفع أسعار الفائدة للحد من التضخم فضلا عن أزمة سلاسل التوريد وارتفاع أسعار الطاقة والمواد الغذائية نتيجة الحرب في أوكرانيا، وفي هذا السياق، تظهر إحصاءات صندوق النقد الدولي بأن البلدان العربية في الشرق الأوسط واسيا وافريقيا جنوب الصحراء وامريكا اللاتينية تعاني معدلات تضخم اعلى من البلدان الأخرى.

وفي ظل هذه الظروف تظهر مشكلة الديون مجددا، حيث يحذر الصندوق من تفاقم الديون العالمية بعد أن تجاوزت 303 تريليون دولار، أي ما يعادل 350٪ من أجمالي الناتج العالمي، لتكون المحصلة المزيد من حالات التخلف عن السداد في البلدان الفقيرة، وتمثل كل من سريلانكا ولبنان مثالا على هذا العجز.

وبحسب بيانات البنك الدولي فقد تجاوزت الديون الخارجية للدول النامية منخفضة ومتوسطة الدخل 9.2 تريليون دولار في نهاية عام 2021 وهو ما يعادل أكثر من ضعف قيمتها منذ عشر سنوات.

التجارة العالمية والنفط

ان انخفاض النمو الاقتصادي العالمي يعني أن التجارة العالمية سوف تميل نحو الانخفاض، مما سيؤثر على الاستثمارات الأجنبية وبالتالي على الاقتصادات الناشئة، هذا ناهيك عن احتمالية ظهور حروب تجارية بين الدول الصناعية وانعكاساتها على الاقتصادات الناشئة. وبخصوص تأثير الركود على اقتصادات الدول، فان ذلك يرتبط بدرجة انفتاح هذه الاقتصادات على الاقتصاد العالمي، فكلما كانت الاقتصادات اكثر انفتاحا كانت أكثر عرضة لتبعات الأزمة الاقتصادية. كما أن الدول التي تعتمد في اقتصاداتها على تصدير النفط تعتبر اكثر عرضة للتأثر بتبعات الأزمة الاقتصادية، وخاصة ما يتعلق بأسعار النفط.

وبعد أن شهدت أسعار النفط ارتفاعا ملحوظا بسبب الحرب الجارية في أوكرانيا لتصل الى أعلى معدل لها في العام 2022، أي الى حوالي مئة دولار للبرميل، فانه من المتوقع أن تنخفض خلال العام 2023 الى ما دون المئة ومن المتوقع أن تنخفض اكثر اذا ما استمر الركود الاقتصادي، لتصل الى ما دون السبعين دولارا خلال العام 2025. وبشكل عام فان الدول المنتجة للنفط تبقى أفضل حالا من بقية الدول خلال فترة الركود نتيجة للعوائد النفطية التي تمكنها من تنفيذ برامج لدعم القطاعات لمختلفة لمواجهة اثار الركود.

اقتصادات الدول العربية

في الوقت الذي تشهد الاقتصادات الكبرى في العالم تباطؤا في النمو، وهي اقتصادات الصين والاتحاد الأوروبي والولايات المتحدة فان دولا عربية غير متوقعة تحقق خرقا في النمو الاقتصادي.

ان المقارنة في بيانات النمو الاقتصادي للمنطقة العربية خلال العام 2022 والعام 2023 تبين الفوارق الكبيرة لتوقعات النمو بين العامين في تباين جلي بين الدول. وفي الوقت الذي شهد فيه العام 2022 نموا كبيرا نسبيا لعدة دول عربية خاصة دول مجلس التعاون ومصر والعراق، يعود ذلك على الأرجح لفترة الانتعاش التي شهدها العالم ما بعد جائحة كورونا، في حين سيشهد العام 2023 تغيرات كبيرة نتيجة للتطورات الأخيرة كما تم الحديث عنها سابقا، وهناك بلدانا ستشهد ركودا، كدول مجلس التعاون الخليجي وخاصة الكويت والسعودية، في حين أن بلدانا أخرى ستشهد نموا بنسب مختلفة، وخاصة ليبيا التي ستكون في صدارة الدول العربية التي ستحقق خرقا غير متوقع في النمو، ويتوقع أن تصل نسبة النمو فيها الى حوالي 18٪ تليها كل من جيبوتي وموريتانيا بنسب تقارب الـ 5٪ وتأتي بعدها كل من مصر والامارات والعراق (الشكل 2).

المصدر: بيانات صندوق النقد الدولي.

تعتبر مشكلة البطالة من المشكلات الرئيسية التي تواجه الاقتصادات العربية. وتظهر بيانات البنك الدولي المتعلقة بالبطالة تفاوتا كبيرا في نسب البطالة في الدول العربية مقارنة مع الاقتصادات الرئيسية في العالم. وطبقا لتقرير "إسكوا" فإن معدلات البطالة بين سكان العالم العربي سجلت نسبا هي الأعلى عالمياً وقد سجلت فلسطين والأردن أعلى نسب بطالة في العام 2021 بواقع حوالي 26 و24 في المئة على التوالي تليها السودان بواقع 21٪. واستندت خلاصات التقارير الاقتصادية الدولية الى أن الواقع الاقتصادي السائد في الدول العربية غير النفطية سيء للغاية اليوم ولا يبدو أنه سيتحسن مستقبلا ما لم تتوفر سياسات وطنية ناجعة وظروف دولية مواتية، في المقابل من المتوقع أن تسجل كل من مصر والبحرين والكويت نسبا أقل بكثير بواقع 6٪ و4٪ و1٪ على التوالي (الشكل 3).

من المتوقع أن تصل نسبة البطالة في الاتحاد الأوربي الى حوالي 7٪، حيث ستسجل اليونان واسبانيا نسبا عالية نسبيا بواقع 14٪ لكل منهما، وستصل في إيطاليا الى حوالي 10٪ كما ستصل الى حوالي 7٪ في كل من فرنسا وبلجيكا والسويد. وفي المملكة المتحدة ستصل الى حوالي 5٪، في المقابل من المتوقع أن تسجل كل من أمريكا وكندا نسبا تصل الى 4٪ و7٪ على التوالي، فيما ستصل هذه النسبة في كل من المانيا وسويسرا الى حوالي 3٪ لكل منهما (الشكل 3).

بالرغم من التوقعات الاقتصادية المتشائمة، فقد نمت اقتصادات دول مجلس التعاون الخليجي خلال العقدين الماضيين بشكل مضطرد وحققت قفزات كبيرة، ليزداد الناتج المحلي الإجمالي بالأسعار الجارية لدول المجلس مجتمعة من اقل من 400 مليار دولار امريكي في العام 2000 ليصل الى أكثر من 2 تريليون دولار في العام 2022، محققة بذلك علامة فارقة ولأول مرة، مما جعل اقتصاد دول المجلس من بين اكبر عشر اقتصادات عالمية، حيث تعتبر خطط التعافي الاقتصادي الطموحة المحرك الرئيسي لهذا الانتعاش كالمشاريع الضخمة لرؤية المملكة العربية السعودية 2030، ومعرض إكسبو 2020 دبي، والاستثمارات المتعلقة بكأس العالم في قطر، وكذلك برامج التنوع الاقتصادي.

تبعات الركود على الحياة اليومية

في حالة حدوث الركود، يبقى السؤال المهم هو تبعات هذه الازمة على الحياة اليومية، حيث أن الصدمات المناخية والصراعات الإقليمية وانتشار الوباء أدت الى تعطيل انتاج الغذاء وتوزيعه بالإضافة الى ارتفاع تكلفة اطعام الناس. ومن المرجح أن تكون عمليات التسريح أعلى وأكثر انتشاراً. وقد يتراجع أصحاب العمل عن التوظيف، فيما يتوقع أن ترتفع معدلات البطالة بمقدار صغير إلى متوسط. لكن لن يكون الجميع في نفس الخطر. ويتفاوت الناس في تعرضهم لتبعات الركود بحسب تخصصاتهم والخبرات التي يمتلكونها. والذي هم يتمتعون بطلب مرتفع على تخصصاتهم - سواء كانوا موظفين في الخطوط الأمامية أو مهندسين في تكنولوجيا المعلومات أو مسؤولين تنفيذيين رفيعي المستوى - فمن المرجح أنهم سيحصلون على وظيفة على الأرجح، أو أن يحتفظوا بوظائفهم وحتى أن يحصلوا على الزيادات والمكافآت على طول الطريق.

المصدر: بيانات صندوق النقد الدولي. * البيانات للعام 2021.

الخلاصة

تشير التقارير والمصادر المختلفة الى أن الاقتصادات الكبرى في العالم لكل من الصين والاتحاد الأوروبي والولايات المتحدة سوف تشهد تباطؤا في النمو، نتيجة للضربات التي تلقاها الاقتصاد العالمي خلال العامين الماضيين، بدءا بالإغلاقات التي تمت بسبب جائحة كورونا مرورا بالحرب الروسية الأوكرانية، وحاليا ازدادت احتمالية انجراف الاقتصاد العالمي نحو الركود بسبب التضخم وزيادة أسعار الفائدة.

وقد حذر البنك الدولي من هذا الركود وسط ارتفاع معدلات التضخم وأسعار الفائدة، وانخفاض الاستثمار، والحرب الروسية المستمرة في أوكرانيا. ويتوقع صندوق النقد الدولي تراجع النمو الاقتصادي الى 2.7٪ في العام 2023 مقارنة بـ 3.2٪ في العام 2022. وهو تباطؤ عالمي من شأنه أن يكلف العالم أكثر من 17 تريليون دولار في الإنتاجية المفقودة.

وتبعا لذلك فانه من المتوقع بأن تواجه الأسر والشركات في مختلف انحاء العالم صعوبات اقتصادية قوية. كما أن هناك توقعات بتفاقم الديون العالمية بعد أن تجاوزت 303 تريليون دولار لتكون المحصلة المزيد من حالات التخلف عن السداد في البلدان الفقيرة.

وفيما يخص بالنفط، فبعد أن شهدت أسعار النفط ارتفاعا ملحوظا بسبب الحرب الجارية في أوكرانيا، فانه من المتوقع أن تنخفض خلال العام 2023 الى ما دون المئة، وبشكل عام فان الدول المنتجة للنفط تبقى أفضل حالا من بقية الدول خلال فترة الركود نتيجة للعوائد النفطية المرتفعة.

من جهة أخرى، أظهرت اقتصادات الدول العربية تباينا في نسب النمو. ففي حين ان بعض الدول العربية سوف تشهد ركودا بعد الطفرة التي شهدتها في فترة ما بعد جائحة كورونا، كدول مجلس التعاون الخليجي وخاصة الكويت والسعودية، فان هناك دولا عربية سوف تحقق نموا ملحوظا مثل جيبوتي، مصر، العراق، موريتانيا، وسوف تحقق ليبيا خرقا في النمو الاقتصادي يصل الى 18٪. وفي كل الأحوال، على الرغم من التوقعات الاقتصادية المتشائمة، فقد نمت اقتصادات دول مجلس التعاون الخليجي خلال العقدين الماضيين بشكل مضطرد وحققت قفزات كبيرة، ليتجاوز الناتج المحلي الإجمالي عتبة الـتريليوني دولار في العام 2022، أخيرا، بالنظر الى التوقعات الاقتصادية المتعلقة بالنمو، فان الحاجة ملحة لبرامج اقتصادية للتصدي للآثار السلبية للركود والحد من تبعاته على الأسر الفقيرة والشركات الصغيرة والمتوسطة.

توصيات لمواجهة الركود

يعتبر دور الحكومات وصانعي السياسات أمرا مهما لمواجهة الأوقات الاقتصادية الصعبة. وستعتمد التدابير التي تتخذها الحكومة على الأسباب والخصائص المحددة للركود، ولكن الهدف من هذه الإجراءات استقرار الاقتصاد ودعم الأفراد والشركات وتعزيز النمو الاقتصادي. حيث يمكن للحكومات أن تلعب دورًا في التخفيف من آثار الركود من خلال عدد من السياسات الاقتصادية التالية:

1- السياسة المالية: يمكن للحكومات استخدام السياسة المالية، كزيادة الإنفاق الحكومي أو التخفيضات الضريبية، لتحفيز الطلب وتعزيز النشاط الاقتصادي. ويجب أن تستهدف السياسة المالية حماية الفئات الأكثر عرضة للمخاطر من خلال صرف تحويلات موجهة ومؤقتة، والاستثمار في تعزيز الطاقة الإنتاجية والاستثمار في رأس المال البشري والتحول الرقمي والطاقة الخضراء وتنويع سلاسل الإمداد.

2- السياسة النقدية: يمكن للبنوك المركزية استخدام السياسة النقدية، مثل خفض أسعار الفائدة، لجعل الاقتراض أرخص وتحفيز النشاط الاقتصادي (في الوقت الذي يعاني فيه الاقتصاد من التضخم يصبح من غير الممكن استخدام هذه السياسة).

3- الاستثمار في البنية التحتية: يمكن للحكومات الاستثمار في مشاريع البنية التحتية، مثل الطرق والجسور وأنظمة النقل العام، لخلق فرص العمل وتحفيز النشاط الاقتصادي.

4- التعاون الدولي: يمكن للحكومات العمل معا من خلال المنظمات الدولية، لتنسيق الجهود وتقديم الدعم خلال فترة الركود، وتعزيز التجارة الدولية لزيادة الصادرات وتحفيز النشاط الاقتصادي.

وبالنسبة للأفراد والشركات، فيما يلي بعض الاستراتيجيات الممكنة لمواجهة الركود:

1- خفض التكاليف: يجب مراجعة النفقات وتحديد المجالات التي يمكن فيها تقليل الإنفاق، خاصة النفقات غير الضرورية وإعادة التفاوض على العقود.

2- زيادة المدخرات: إنشاء صندوق طوارئ للمساعدة في مواجهة الصعوبات المالية.

3- تنويع الاستثمارات: النظر في محفظة متنوعة تشمل كلا من الأسهم والسندات لتقليل المخاطر الإجمالية.

4- إدارة الديون: إعطاء الأولوية لسداد الديون عالية الفائدة والنظر في طرق السداد أو إعادة التفاوض بشأنها لتقليل المدفوعات الشهرية.

5- احتضان التكنولوجيا: احتضان التقنيات والابتكارات الجديدة لتحسين الكفاءة والإنتاجية وزيادة الإيرادات.

6- التركيز على بناء المهارات: الاستثمار في التطوير الشخصي والمهني لزيادة المهارات القابلة للتسويق والقدرة التنافسية.

7- تقوية العلاقات: تعزيز العلاقات مع العملاء والموردين وأصحاب المصلحة الآخرين لزيادة المرونة والدعم في الأوقات الصعبة.

8- طلب الدعم الحكومي: البحث في البرامج الحكومية، أو الإعفاءات الضريبية، أو الحوافز المالية الأخرى للمساعدة في إدارة فترة الركود.

[1] آفاق التنمية في عالم متصدع Trade and Development Report 2022. Development prospects in a fractured world: Global disorder and regional responses.

[2] صندوق النقد الدولي: https://www.imf.org/ar/Blogs/Articles/2022/09/30/global-food-crisis-demands-support-for-people-open-trade-bigger-local-harvests.

Vision 2030, government spending to drive non-oil sector growth, says Jadwa Investment.

Saudi Arabia's economy is set to grow by 7 percent year-on-year in 2022 due result of significantly higher oil sector growth and robust levels of non-oil growth, Riyadh-based Jadwa Investment said.

The strong level of growth of this year is expected to continue into next year, the investment bank said in a report on Tuesday.

International Monetary Fund said in July the kingdom is expected to grow 2.4 per cent this year and 4.8 per cent in 2022.

According to Jadwa, within the oil sector, growth will be driven by higher Saudi crude oil production, in-line with yearly rises in global oil demand.

"We note that circa 40 percent of OPEC+’s spare capacity resides with Saudi Arabia, and thus any uplift in demand will likely be met with proportionally higher oil supply from the Kingdom."

In terms of the non-oil sector, despite a moderation in year-on-year growth the economy will be driven forward by the continued implementation of the Vision 2030, Jadwa said.

According to a finance ministry report, Saudi Arabia’s oil sector revenue grew 60 percent year-on year in Q3-2021 to nearly 148 billion riyals while non-oil revenue in Q3 contracted 22 percent year-on-year to 95.4 billion riyals.

Jadwa said the Saudi economy will be supported by another sizable outlay in government expenditure, which, despite declining on a yearly basis in 2022, is still set to total just under 1 trillion riyals. “Overall, we expect the Kingdom’s non-oil private sector to grow by 3.2 percent in full year 2022.”

Additionally, both the Public Investment Fund (PIF) and the National Development Fund (NDF) will be the engines of capital deployment and economic development in the Kingdom, as detailed in the recently unveiled National Investment Strategy (NIS).

Jadwa said the main risk to its forecast is related to the disruptive nature of Covid-19, or, more specifically, to global developments related to the ‘Omicron’ variant seen in the last few days.

“As it stands, it is too early to gauge the full impact of the variant on the Saudi economy, especially so without knowing to what extent, if any, the variant poses a threat to the current crop of Covid-19 vaccines' effectiveness."

source: zawya

Translated by: Hayat Hernández

Although palm trees are considered beautiful decorative plants and very suitable for sunny days, they have a very significant role in nutrition being a rich source of vitamins and important minerals.

As said in the Quran “For it is He who has brought into being gardens-[both] the cultivated ones and those growing wild -and the date-palm, and fields bearing multiform produce, and the olive tree, and the pomegranate: [all] resembling one another and yet so different! Eat of their fruit when it comes to fruition, and give [unto the poor] their due on harvest day. And do not waste [God's bounties]: verily, He does not love the wasteful”, Al Ana‘am (6: 141)

It’s thought that the first place where palm trees were cultivated was the Arabian island “Harkan” in Bahrain in the Arabian Gulf, and later spread through Iraq into the other parts of the world according to “Ibn Wahshyah”, one of the oldest writers in terms of agriculture. Confirmed by “Al Subai’I” 1933.

Palm trees and different cultures

This tree was a symbol of warship amongst Chaldea, Assyrians and Phoenicians, in fact, many ministries in Arab countries relate palm trees with culture, religion and history. According to the official website of the ministry of agriculture in Jordan, palm tree was mentioned in the Jewish scripts, as well as dates which were one of the seven sacred fruits. It was mentioned in the bible also that Crist was born under a palm tree, and his followers paved the ground with palm leaves along his way when he entered Jerusalem. As for Islam, dates have a very special quality when it comes to Ramadan (the month that Muslims fast during), where it is desirable for the fasting person to break his fast on dates. This was proven by the actions of the Prophet, may God bless him and grant him peace.

Many civilizations have cherished palm trees since the beginning of their rise by decorating their palaces and monuments, their trunks were also used as columns. Cultivating palm trees was the first type of farming that certain laws were made for to follow, as it was in Hammurabi’s Code.

The Economic value

Some of the oil supplying countries are having a drop off in the oil production, while in the meantime there is another kind of oil in the pipeline that requires different climate conditions, and that is palms oil.

Nowadays, 30 countries around the world cultivate palm trees, almost 600 thousand hectares of farmed land, 422 thousand of them belong to Arab lands. The economic worth of this plant is tremendous that it’s in the vein of oil growing on trees. The Arab world has come in the lead in the dates production by 70% of international production, out of 100 million trees that are planted in the world, almost 80 million are planted in Arab countries. Although palm trees cultivation isn’t the easiest, the outcomes of this kind of investment are noteworthy considering 80 to 100 Kg of dates come from just one tree after 7 years of planting.

Obviously the date fruit production represents a very significant sector in the economy, and it’s rising constantly. For example, Turkey consumes almost 10 thousand tons of dates in Ramadan according to the Jordan newspaper “Al-Raya”, and this sector is considered to be in the lead in terms of hiring a tremendous number of workers, which reduces the average number of unemployed people in the Arab world.

Regarding the types of dates that exist, they passed 2000 types, in Iraq only there are over 600 types, 400 in Iran, and almost 400 in Libya according to the “Iraqi Network of Palm Tree”, plus over 400 type of dates in Saudi Arabia, in addition to the varieties that are cultivated in all Africa excluding Libya, they would reach more than 2000 varieties, every type having a different name which illustrates the importance of this agroindustry.

Population growth

The number of human population on earth will reach 9 billion people in 2050, which will cause the need of more food to increase, and consequently, MENA resources to decrease especially palm trees and dates due to many factors, but it will remain the best region to grow palms regarding the climate and soils.

Healthy benefits of date fruit

Balah (a type of dates) contains most basic nutrients for the human body, and they are considered a good source for vitamins. This fruit is like a mine containing a lot of basic minerals like phosphorus, calcium, iron, magnesium, sodium, sulfur, and chloride. It has also numerous benefits on the health being consumed as food, a fruit, a drink, dessert, and also a medicine. It contains 21% of water and many vitamins such as vitamin A, B1, B2, D, 1.2% protein, 18% fat, 73% sugar, and 3% fibers. 1 Kg of dates provides your body with the same amount of calories that a kilogram of meat does, and three times the calories that 1 Kg of fish provides.

Date fruits contain monosaccharaides (glucose and fructose) such as Al-Barhi, Al-Sayer, Al-Zuhdi, Al-Sidi, and Halawi, and disaccharides (sucrose) such as Dajla Noor and Dajla Baida.

All parts of the palm tree can be useful, such as:

The kernel: suitable as fodder for livestock and increases its production of meat and milk. And enters in the yeast industry as well.

Leaves and fronds: to make tools, furniture, antiques, cages, ropes and baskets.

Logs: to make house roofs, doors and seats in addition to bridges, archways and pulp.

Parts of the stems can be used as fuel or tanks for planting ornamental plants.

Some types of dates are used to extract natural incense from, such as Dagla, which is bred in Morocco.

The fruit (Rutab and Dates): has a high nutritive value, as well as being a source for oil, sugar, and syrup, besides its role in the cosmetic industry.

Pollen: used in pharmaceutical manufacture.

Roots: to keep the soil consistent.

Palms and the surrounding environment

Date palm tree has a significant role in maintaining a balanced environment and preventing the desert invasion, due to its ability to adapt to it, the extension of its roots vertically and horizontally permits the plant to reach humid areas in order to get to the sources of water. As for the leaves, they are attached to the wickers and covered with a waxy layer and folded into V shape along their branch, forming a canoe-like shape, with its bottom facing upward to reduce water loss. Palm trees are also used to ward off the wind around farms, as they prevent and slow desertification. They also protect the trees and plants grown around them. The palm also tolerates high temperatures, salinity and drought.

Arab countries that most produce this unique fruit:

Saudi Arabia

The Kingdom owns more than 23 million palm trees, with a production exceeding one million tons, according to Food and Agriculture Organization "FAO", equivalent to 16% of the total global production, and increasing by about 3% annually. The Kingdom supports palm farmers by about 50 riyals per palm, and this market also provides thousands of job opportunities. There are dozens of factories to manufacture palm products. Nevertheless, the kingdom does not export more than 5% of its annual output.

The most famous area in which date palm is cultivated is the Qassim region, where the "City of Dates" was established. It is famous for containing almost eight million palm trees, of which there are six million productive trees, more than 205 thousand tons of various types of dates are also grown in Saudi Arabia and more than 400 species, seventy of them have a high economic value.

United Arab Emirates

There are about 40 million palm trees in the UAE, 8.5% of them are planted in “Al Ain” region where there is a gene pool that includes almost 120 species, and high quality varieties were added recently imported from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran and the Sultanate of Oman.

Palestine

Cultivated date palms have existed in Palestine for thousands of years. Being a tree of great economic value, and a great religious status, being a perennial tree, and its ability to withstand many climatic conditions, in addition to its ability to grow in saline soils, palm tree has gained the attention of the Palestinian farmer.

The Mediterranean climate conditions dominant in the area provide optimal conditions for growth and development of date palm.

Date palm cultivation is widespread in Palestine in the Jericho area, the Jordan Valley, and the Gaza Strip, especially in the cities of Deir al-Balah and Khan Yunis. Historically, the city of Jericho was called the "City of Palms". Because of the large number of palm plantations in it.

Date palm cultivation is the least labor-intensive crops, and the least labor-intensive crops. The tree needs three years to bear fruit, and after six years it reaches its peak. This sector, which was on the top of the Palestinian agricultural sector in the Jordan Valley, in terms of areas, water consumption, and agricultural labor absorption.

After 1967, considerable areas of the Jordan Valley were cultivated by Israeli farmers with new high-quality date palm cultivars including Medjool. The adaptability of the new cultivars and the use of advanced techniques for propagation and cultivation of dates produced crop of excellent quality and yield to supply local and international markets.

According to the Palestinian Ministry of Agriculture the cultivated area in the Palestinian valleys with palm trees is estimated at about 24 thousand dunums at the end of 2020 out of a total of 55 thousand dunums of land that Palestinians exploit in the Jordan Valley. This is a small fraction of 300 thousand dunums suitable for cultivation, but still unexploited. According to the statistics of the Palestinian Ministry of Agriculture, the number of palm trees by the end of 2020 was estimated at about 330 thousand trees, and the quantity of production of pure Palestinian dates until at about 12,800 thousand tons. The Palestinian local market in the West Bank and Gaza Strip consumes about 6,000 tons of dates annually. It was estimated that 60% of the Palestinian production of dates goes to the local market, and only 40% of the production is exported from the Palestinian Majool (Medjool) variety, where the per capita consumption is estimated annually at about 900 grams of dates.

The most important palm varieties cultivated in Palestine are Medjool, Al-Barhi, Elhayani. Medjool dates are one of the finest dates produced in the Palestinian, at the regional and international levels. Because it is grown in areas below sea level; It increases the percentage of oxygen, which gives it a distinct flavor and color.

According to Abu-Qaoud several constraints face date cultivation and development, including high investment costs, poor marketing, and inequitable competition with Israeli products, limited water, pests, and diseases. However, there is a trend by formal governmental agencies as well as by national NGOs to support the cultivation of date palms in Palestine. The Palestinian Ministry of Agriculture has initiated several programs to support date palm cultivation in the Jordan Valley since 2000 with local NGO participation.

Egypt

According to the Egyptian Ministry of Agriculture, date palms cultivation extends in most governorates of the country where there are about 20 million palm trees, representing 73,653 acres, or about 6.32% of the total fruit cultivated land, as it currently reaches approximately 14% of the total fruit production. This increase is attributed to the expansion of the areas planted with palm trees in the governorates of Matrouh, New Valley, North Sinai, South Sinai, the Red Sea, Nubaria, Toshka, Al Uwaynat, and modern reclaimed lands.

Due to the varied climatic conditions in Egypt, the wet and semi-dry varieties have spread in the Delta and Middle Egypt regions, while the Upper Egypt region, especially Aswan, is known to uniquely contain dry varieties.

Palm trees need relatively high temperatures and low amount of humidity during the summer to produce fruits with good quality and high yield, specific thermal conditions that differ for different varieties are required.

A team of scientists consisting of researchers from the Genetic Engineering Research Institute, and the Central Laboratory for Palm Research and Development of the Agricultural Research Center, as well as the Bioinformatics Department of Nile University succeeded in determining the initial version of the genetic map for some varieties of date palms. Therefore, this accurate information about the commercially desirable species can be used to predict the type and gender of palm trees planted, and to contribute with reveling ways to increase Egypt's production of palm trees as well, thus enhancing its reproduction developing programs to protect the plants from diseases and pests.

Some indicators of the growing interest in palm cultivation:

Date palm tissue culture laboratory

Many countries rely on traditional agricultural methods such as seed and seedling planting, so in order to make a change by developing palm cultivation to increase its production, the Palm Tissue Cultivation Laboratory was established in 1989 at the UAE University, which intended to produce hundreds of thousands of palm seedlings. Consequently, the laboratory gained a prominent scientific position commercially as one of the largest laboratories for palm trees propagation.

Palm tissue cultivation has many advantages compared to the traditional methods, such as:

• Increasing the cultivation of female seedlings that are free of diseases and pests and resilient seedlings, or best pollen producing male seedlings.
• Cultivation of offshoots in sustainable lands directly without waiting for the incubation phase (2-3 years), the offspring then have an entire root system (offspring with whole cells) and are planted during the propagation season (August – September) or (March – April).
• Increasing the production of selected types of dates. One of the most significant advantages of this method is the homogeneity of the produced shoots, which guarantees the homogeneity and velocity of plant growth, as the crop can be harvested after only 4 years of planting.
• Palm seedlings can be propagated from known varieties or from cultivars with a seed origin.
• Ensuring an easy and rapid exchange of plant materials between different regions of the country, or between countries, without risking the spread of diseases or pests.
• Obtaining offsets from palm trees that have lost their ability to produce offspring.
• Considered to be an economic aspect as a result of increasing production in large quantities without causing any type of diseases.

In addition to that, the Dates International Council was established in Saudi Arabia, a large number of conferences and exhibitions were also held in MENA to enhance trade exchange between producing and consuming countries and also to encourage the exchange of expertise among them.

Popular date festivals such as the Palm Carnival in Saudi Arabia were organized, as well as the Emirates International Palm and Date Festival, which was arranged by Abu Dhabi Food Control Authority.

Causes of the decline in date palm production in the Arab region

Agricultural pesticides: Palm trees in Egypt are exposed to many insect pests that reduce the harvest or damage it when stored, and as a result of infection with these pests, the loss in the crop may reach 52%. In fact, some of these pests, such as the red palm weevil, may lead to the death of the palm within a year or two, which limits the spread of palm cultivation in many areas. In addition, these pests don’t just affect the fruit, but also the fronds, branches, roots and the stems.

Lack of the farmers awareness on how to fight agricultural pests.

Using traditional agricultural methods instead of modern technologies for irrigation and fertilization; increasing their rates leads to an increase in the rates of productivity of date palms and thus causing the economic outcome to rise.

Palm trees aging, which leads to a lack of production as is the case in Algeria and Tunisia, where 35% of their palms suffer from a lack of production due to their aging process.

Poor marketing as a result of lack of experience internally and externally.

Weak technical expertise that allows raising the level of the product to fit the international standards of foreign markets, as is the case in some small producing countries.

The high cost of production in the case of poor infrastructure such as roads, high transportation costs, pollen prices, fertilizers and pesticides, as is the case in Palestine where Israel controls palm pollen and pesticides for this type of tree.

Wars and political instability, as happened in Iraq, which toped the list of dates producing countries with more than six hundred species, and it is the place where man began planting palm trees four thousand years ago according to the head of the Date Palm Center at Basra University, Dr. Kazem Jasam Hammadi, who stated for “Deutsche Welle” channel the decline causes in the number of date palms in Basra, which he attributed to the war and high levels of salinity due to the rise in Gulf waters, in addition to the population invasion at the expense of palm groves.

Countries that have made qualitative progress

Palestine

Despite what may seem a small market compared to the other major markets, date producers in Palestine have made a quantum leap in the cultivation of palm trees in terms of quantity and quality within a short period not exceeding six years. The Palestinian farmer was able to plant 59,000 thousand palm seedlings; an area of ​​4,249 acres during the period (2006 - 2012).

A study issued by the Chamber of Commerce, Agriculture and Industry in Jericho city and the Jordan valley (Al Aghwar) in 2014 indicated that date palm cultivation is one of the most promising investments, as the production of dates doubled between 2012 and 2014 by 100%, bringing the production amount to about 4000 tons. There are other types of dates in Palestine such as Al-Barhi, Al-Hayani and Medjool.

According to the study carried out by the Jericho Chamber of Commerce and Agriculture, dates exports reached 50% of the total agricultural exports during 2011 - 2014, because Palestinian dates fit the international quality standards, which have competed with Israeli dates on the international market. The total number of employees and workers during the harvest season was estimated at 3200 persons.

Rare dates: pass under the sea

Medjool dates are considered one of the finest types of dates produced in the Palestinian, Jordanian territory, on regional and international levels. Due to its growth in areas below sea level, the percentage of oxygen increases, which gives it a distinct flavor and color. As for the expected output of "Majhoul or Medjool" dates for the year 2015, it reached 4 to 5 thousand tons, and this figure may double ten times within one decade, according to the officials of Nakheel, which is owned by PADICO Holding Company, whose annual production of this type reached 400 tons out of 26,000 date palm trees. The Palestinian market is small, but it is a promising market. "This rare date is grown in the Palestinian valleys and parts of Mexico and California, but the" Medjool "dates grown under the sea remain the most distinctive and highest quality, as stated by Engineer Tariq Al-Qawasmi, General Manager of the Arab Agricultural Company in Jericho.

Moamen Mazen Sinokrot, General Manager of Pal Garden in Jericho, which produces 600 tons of dates per year, said that he expects significant growth in the coming period that may reach 30% annually, as a result of high demand and high return on investment.

Palestine won first place (for the fourth category) in the Khalifa International Award for Date Palm in its seventh congregation as the best development project in the field of date palm development, in which 34 Arab and foreign countries participated with 137 research. Dr. Nasser Al-Jaghoub, head of the Agricultural Risks and Insurance Fund, and Ahmed Fares, Director of Jericho Directorate at the Ministry of Agriculture, won the award.

The characteristics of the Medjool or Majool palm tree

The origin of this variety is from the Kingdom of Morocco, but it disappeared from there due to agricultural pests that affected it, so its seedlings were transferred to California and then to the Jordan Valley areas in Palestine and Jordan. This variety is characterized by a medium-sized stem, and short fronds of medium bending, and the bases of the fronds are of medium width, starting with a dark green and then yellowing, and showing lines or brown spots in the middle, the number of thorns on a single frond ranges from 30 to 38, although the fruit is considered amongst the soft varieties, other type of dates fruit can be softer than meat in comparison. The fruits of this variety may suffer damage from rain and high humidity, but to a small degree. The date palm yield ranges from 80 - 100 kg per year.

Jordan

In Jordan there are about a quarter of a million trees, and the Jordan Valley region is the most famous for its palm cultivation and some areas of the northeastern desert (Al-Azraq), and Jordan is making great efforts to develop this cultivation appropriate to the nature of a large part of its lands. Where agricultural reserves for this purpose were being established, as the United Arab Emirates supplied the Kingdom with fifty thousand seedlings of tissues originating from different varieties to study their suitability for agriculture, they included Barhi, Maktoumi, Khalas, Sandy Gish, Khadrawi, Razeer, Zuhdi, Namishi. As for the interest in Medjool dates, it began in Jordan some twenty-five years ago.

Dates are the future sustenance

Engineer Muhammad Batayneh, General Manager of AgriJordan (which grows approximately 4,500 trees), stated that the date palm is the future cultivar, due to the uniqueness of this tree in its ability to purify the water it absorbs from the soil so that the plant does not secret any heavy metals or unwanted elements to the fruit. Because normally, palm trees are irrigated with recycled sewage water, which is a source for many palm farms due to the severe water shortage in the area. As a result to the unique quality of the fibers of the long stem of the palm, it purifies the water as a natural water filter. Batayneh, who is proud of the Jordan Valley dates, especially Medjool dates which are among the best in the world, carries on saying that the future of fruit and vegetables cultivation is endangered because of clean water shortage. However, palm cultivation remains feasible and profitable, and thus the cost of repeated water for irrigation purposes can be borne."

Par Ayman Abualkhair

(English)

Nous vivons une période très spéciale, étant donné que l'épidémie de COVID-19 a atteint 177 pays et régions et qu'elle se propage dans le monde à un rythme imprévisible.

Cette crise a révélé notre faiblesse en tant qu'êtres humains, les déséquilibres qui existent dans de nombreux domaines de notre vie et la nécessité de revoir sérieusement notre façon de vivre. Elle montre plus particulièrement l'invalidité du principe «chacun pour soi», qui n'entraîne le bien-être de personne.

Cette crise montre l'unité du destin de l'humanité et de la fraternité humaine d'une manière sans précédent. Le risque auquel est confronté un individu ou une communauté peut toucher tout le monde, quels que soient les lieux, les ethnies ou les affiliations nationales et religieuses.

Le coronavirus a complètement changé notre mode de vie, ce n'est plus comme avant: files d'attente pour les courses, plus de rassemblements à l'école, plus d'enfants qui jouent dans la cour de récré, plus de réunions au travail, plus de célébrations de masse, plus de contact physique avec des amis ou même avec des proches... Le coronavirus a interdit toutes sortes de rassemblements humains!. Chacun doit craindre pour sa propre personne, nous vivons des moments difficiles. Mais cette pandémie offre également à chacun la possibilité de réfléchir profondément à sa vie, à ce qu'il a fait et à ce qu'il devrait faire aujourd'hui et demain. La vraie question qui s’impose: pourquoi nous ne sommes pas préparés à ce virus pandémique, alors que nous avons accumulé des connaissances scientifiques sans précédent dans de nombreux domaines?!. Bill Gates a déclaré en 2015, lors d'une conférence TEDX, que le véritable danger pour l'homme n'est pas une bombe atomique mais plutôt un virus! Il n’y a pas de doute, nous devons investir davantage de ressources dans la protection de la santé et le bien-être de l'être humain.

Les conséquences catastrophiques de coronavirus sur l’économie mondiale nécessitent des actions immédiates de la part des décideurs du monde entier, pour protéger les économies locales, principalement les PME, contre l'effondrement.

J'espère que cette crise mondiale sera un catalyseur pour un travail collectif afin de réaliser un avenir meilleur pour tous.

Restez en sécurité, restez à la maison!

More than three months on since the emergence of the coronavirus, talking about the high demand for products of the digital economy is no longer a predictive matter, but rather a reality. Since the first half of February, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has displayed huge gains.

It’s not only Chinese companies active in the digital economy who have made gains, but also the shares of digital companies situated around the world. All of this is quietly sneaking under the radar of global news outlets who favor darker news. Those unhelpful bulletins initiate a sense of "panic" that limits the ability of startup owners and small businesses to think about the possibility of adapting and exploiting opportunities presented by these temporary conditions.

Nationwide lockdowns have led to the necessity of searching for alternative services that can be provided through smart phone applications and online platforms. Economists have tried to explain away the gains of digital companies, as a result of these new realities. However, since the coronavirus pandemic is not the end of the world, the emergency situation will soon disappear, just as is the case in China. Life in the Chinese province of Hubei (which was the initial epicenter of the spread of the coronavirus pandemic) is returning to normal, so does this mean that the markets will later suffer a correction within a few months, at the least, within a year? As far as equipment and medical clothing companies are concerned, the most likely hypothesis is that demand for their products will decrease with the decline of the virus spread. As for digital companies, it is likely that they will continue to grow. This hypothesis can be adopted for the following three reasons:

First: the growth of unconventional services via Internet

During the last few months, a group of online services that did not exist before and others that were less common in lower-demand markets for digital services appeared. One such service is provided by Peloton for home training bicycles, which has the advantage of communicating with other trainees via the internet. Demand for this service has increased by more than 50% during a record period, as well as the group viewing service launched by Netflix as an alternative to the cinemas that have closed their doors. We’ve also noticed a huge growth in telemedicine services. In this regard, it is expected that coronavirus will push people towards digitization at a rapid pace, which will lead to a shift in the health sector environment to become more digitized. Telehealth in a number of countries, especially Western ones, may not be new. The United States, for example, is already advanced in the process of digital transformation in the field of healthcare. But what’s changed is the speed and comprehensiveness of this transformation. The concept of digital health care is now spreading to new markets, such as across the Arab peninsula where telehealth is still an unconventional service.

Second: Investing in digital transformation

Despite the digital transformation underway at many companies around the world, the vast majority of companies still rely on the traditional work environment which lacks the flexibility to continue working under the current circumstances. This has forced the companies to accelerate their process of digital transformation, such as transferring the work of their employees to homes, the adoption of cloud computing technology, remote meeting technologies, the adoption of electronic stores and digital marketing, and many other digital transformation measures. Of course those services are not free of charge, and it requires companies to bear the brunt of those costs. Universities in Australia provide a perfect example of this. Many universities that receive international students from China have been forced to equip their facilities with distance education programs for international students who have been forced by ongoing circumstances to return to their countries. By making this rapid investment in digital transformation – after the cessation of the coronavirus pandemic – companies cannot simply abandon those investments. They will continue to use them, which is also another reason why digital products will continue to grow in the future.

Third: The experience of changing the work environment and consumption

The experience factor is related to the previous two factors, as companies now discovering the benefits of the digital business environment will continue to develop their digital business model and abandon many traditional business methods. As for consumption, the change is manifested by changing consumer behavior. Millions of consumers did not have any previous experience with the products of digital companies, such as learning, telemedicine, delivery services, and electronic products. The fact that consumers have now experienced consumption through the internet will enable digital companies to enhance their customer base. "The economy of quarantine," (as it is called in China) will develop new consumer habits, as people who have to the opportunity to experience digital services today may become permanent customers in the future.

In spite of the pessimistic news about slowing global growth, the Chinese experience so far shows more positive signs. After the COVID-19 pandemic receded in China, shops are witnessing an increase in their sales volumes above levels recorded in the same period last year. This is an early indicator of the possibility of markets auto-correcting in the period immediately following the end of the health emergency. As the Chinese experience indicates, companies that are now adapting their businesses through digital transformation will achieve future gains, by exploiting the “pent up demand” caused by the period spend under lockdown conditions.

On 31st Dec 2019, the government of Wuhan, China, confirmed a dozen cases of severe pneumonia. Researchers in China later identified Covid-19 or coronavirus as a new virus that has infected thousands of people in Asia. As recorded by Worldometer:

• In the past two months, the virus has spread to 109 countries
• Infecting more than 116,711 people across the world
• The death toll has reached 4,095 including 3,136 deaths in China only

The World Health Organization (WHO) declared Covid-19 or Coronavirus “a global health emergency.” The virus has not only affected humans but has adversely impacted the world economy and businesses with its uncontrollable outbreak. Its spread to Europe and the Middle East has started a fear of global pandemic. To which global financial markets are reacting strongly, and business leaders are questioning the growth and recovery of the world economy.

What Coronavirus Outbreak Could Mean to the Global Economy

With the start of the year 2020, the trade war with the United States left the Chinese economy to expand at a low pace in 30 years. In addition to this, it is estimated that nearly 4 million people lost their jobs in 2019. As if this was not enough for China to manage, the outbreak of coronavirus put a brake on the economy.

According to Standard Chartered, due to the lockdown in China, the virus could affect 42 percent of the economy. The banking industry may face non-performing loans of $1.1 trillion as the companies fail to make payments.

The outbreak is not only impacting China, but it is also crippling the world economy.

Let’s shed a light on the sector or businesses that are facing economic crisis globally.

Stock Markets

Global Shares take a hit

After the 2008 financial crisis, the world stock market started to experience a severe impact in February 2020. It was estimated that the impact would be limited to companies that have a direct and indirect connection with China.

Now, the virus has reached 109 countries, investors are worried about its impact on buying and selling shares. Investors are nervous; therefore, they are selling into an overvalued market to save profits. The US central bank has decreased interest rates. In order to make the borrowing cheap and to encourage people to spend in the share market. But due to the outbreak of the coronavirus, many companies have stopped their operations.

Global Manufacturing

China is famously known as “the factory of the world.” From 15 to 20 years, China has single-handedly managed the supply chain of international companies. Due to the coronavirus, this has been interrupted, and many global companies have shut down their operations.

For instance, Starbucks closed all its stores in the region due to the outbreak. Apple and Honda also closed their manufacturing unit in February.

In addition to this, more than 51,000 global companies have at least one supplier in the region affected by the pandemic.

Let’s not forget the tension between the US and China caused by the global trade war, and the manufacturing sector is already at a loss. We have to wait and see how coronavirus would impact the global supply chain in the coming days.

Oil and Gas Market

The outbreak of the coronavirus has impacted the oil market to hit the deepest level in oil production cuts. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are also having disagreements that have caused the prices to go more down.

Saudi Arabia ended up lowering the oil prices that fumed a price war causing U.S. crude oil prices to plunge by 25%. Since 2016, for the first time, U.S. crude oil barrel price went below $30.

According to the American Automobile Association, in the second week of March, the average national gas price has reached to $2.38 per gallon. This is the third week in the United States, where the gasoline stocks decreased, and demand has increased.

The oil price war has raised major concerns in the United States energy industry, and how they will manage the decreasing oil prices globally.

Travel and Tourism

The lockdown has also impacted the Chinese airlines as their planes are forced to stay on the grounds. Nearly $12.8 billion losses may be faced by the Chinese airlines, and the global airline industry is expected to lose $29 billion (IATA).

There has been a lot of trip cancelation, as China and Italy are facing serious lockdowns, and millions of people are quarantined. Entry in Iran has also banned due to the increased number of people getting infected.

Education

According to UNESCO, over 290.5 million students have been affected due to the virus outbreak in more than 22 countries.

• Italy- has been recorded as the most affected region in Europe, with 200 deaths. Therefore, they have shut down schools till 15^th
• Spain- The government of Spain, has closed education centers from nursery schools to universities in Madrid.
• China has been in lockdown for more than two months; millions of students are home bound and relying on online learning

Coronavirus – an opportunity?

When there are losers, there are winners too. Coronavirus has shaken the whole world, and people are living in a state of fear. On the other hand, some people are also benefiting from this novel outbreak.

• Prices of a mask, hand sanitizers, hand-washed, etc. have been increased in no time boosting sales for health sector and pharmaceutical sector. Reckitt Benckiser, Getz Pharma, are some names who are on the winning side.
• Due to the lockdown, people are turning towards online shopping, which has increased the sales for e-commerce sectors such as Amazon and Ali Baba.
• Some business events have been shifted from real offline events to online, like Seedstars summit in Switzerland.
• Walmart sales were also increased as people shopped the necessary items in bulk, leaving the shelves empty.
• Given the closure of schools in certain regions due to health risks, distance education has flourished during this period
• Increase and improvement of domestic production and self-sufficiency.
• While the reduction of economic activities is harmful for economic growth, it is beneficial for the environment, we can observe a significant reducing of pollution and carbon emissions.

Coronavirus has impacted the world in the worst way possible, and as the numbers of the virus victims are increasing, the world economy will face more implications.

Following are some key points to keep in mind:

• Now is not the time for individual investors to take risk with the money, wait till the market settles. However, if you want to rebalance your portfolio by buying stocks to reallocate resources, the time is feasible.
• Keep your travel plans on hold, especially to the affected regions.
• Focus on post-crisis management in order to deal with the aftermath.

©Swiss Arab Entrepreneurs Platform

Information sources: Forbes, Al Jazeera, BBC, abc News.

Dubai. It’s time to do more business. The first World Expo to be held in the Middle East, Africa and South Asia (MEASA) region and largest ever event to take place in the Arab world is paving the way for a robust economic impact on wide-ranging sectors in the UAE.

From construction to retail and transport to the restaurant and hotel sectors, Expo 2020 Dubai is ushering in a new era of economic expansion not just in the UAE but also in the region and the world.

In April 2019, Ernst & Young published an independent report that stated Expo 2020 Dubai is already having a substantial economic impact and is expected to continue to do so over the next decade and beyond. Additionally, UAE’s rich tradition as a place for small businesses looking to take their products to the world is nurturing SMEs (Small and Medium Enterprises), who are the key to future growth and job creation.

To date, Expo 2020 has awarded Dh3.62 billion to SMEs through direct and indirect awards and SMEs have won 55.4 per cent of all contracts awarded by Expo 2020 as of July 31, 2019.

In addition, Expo 2020’s global innovation and partnership programme, Expo Live, has allocated $100 million to back projects with creative solutions to pressing challenges across the world, helping to improve people’s lives or preserve the planet.

The investment in infrastructure and other assets for Expo 2020 — expected to reach Dh40.1 billion — will in most part be retained for the future.

Expo 2020 Dubai will also stimulate travel and tourism during the course of the event. Other sectors too are benefiting, demonstrated by the fact more than 7,200 non-construction contracts to more than 1,000 companies have been awarded to date, 70 per cent of which are UAE registered.

source: gulfnews